3 Wednesday Market Must-Knows Before the Bell

Happy Wednesday. For those with an eye on commercial real estate, or perhaps a penchant for the drama of “Owning Manhattan,” Ryan Serhant’s recent discussion with CNBC’s Diana Olick offers a compelling look into the industry’s dynamics.

Stock futures are hovering near flat this morning, following a session where the three major indexes closed with minimal changes.

Here are five key developments shaping the market landscape as traders kick off the day:

Yesterday’s market activity saw a sharp, albeit temporary, reaction to a misstep on social media. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s now-deleted X post, suggesting a U.S. Navy escort of a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, sent oil prices plummeting on hopes of stabilizing crude trade. However, the claim proved to be unsubstantiated.

Here’s a breakdown of the situation:

• Shortly after the post was removed, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified to reporters that “the U.S. Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time,” and indicated no discussion with Secretary Wright regarding the post.
• An Energy Department spokesperson later attributed the video’s inaccurate caption to staff error.
• U.S. and Brent crude prices, which had fallen more than 11%, recouped some losses as the inaccuracy of Wright’s statement became apparent.
• This morning, oil prices are experiencing a rebound following reports that three vessels were struck off Iran’s coast, including one in the Strait of Hormuz, as confirmed by the United Kingdom.
• Market participants are closely monitoring the International Energy Agency (IEA) as it deliberates on potentially releasing oil from strategic reserves.
• In parallel, stock futures are showing little movement as investors await the crucial February consumer price index report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Shares of Oracle are surging over 10% this morning, buoyed by the company’s robust third-quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street expectations and a raised outlook for the fiscal year 2027. This performance underscores Oracle’s strategic pivot and execution in the cloud computing space.

The software giant reported a significant 44% surge in cloud revenue, reaching $8.9 billion in the third quarter. More impressively, Oracle’s remaining performance obligations—a key indicator of future revenue—more than quadrupled year-over-year to exceed $550 billion. This substantial backlog signifies strong future revenue streams and the company’s ability to scale its operations to meet demand.

During an analyst call, Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk highlighted Cerebras as a pivotal player in artificial intelligence hardware development, placing it alongside industry giants Nvidia and AMD. This endorsement comes as Cerebras, an AI chipmaker, reportedly prepares for a potential initial public offering, having withdrawn its filing the previous year. This strategic mention signals potential partnerships and a broader ecosystem play for Oracle, leveraging specialized AI hardware to accelerate its cloud services and enterprise solutions.

Kevin Warsh, tapped by President Donald Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, faces a daunting economic landscape should he take the helm. One economist described his potential tenure as a “perfect storm,” presenting a complex policy dilemma.

Warsh would be tasked with balancing the urgent need to curb inflation against the imperative to support labor market growth. This delicate act could become even more challenging, with the specter of rising energy prices due to the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions adding another layer of uncertainty to the economic outlook. The interconnectedness of energy prices and inflation means any geopolitical instability could directly impact monetary policy decisions.

Beyond the economic challenges, Warsh’s confirmation process in the Senate faces significant headwinds. Senator Thom Tillis has reiterated his commitment to blocking Fed nominees until the criminal investigation into outgoing Chair Jerome Powell is resolved, stating, “This is not about people, it’s about process.” This stance underscores the political complexities intertwining with the Federal Reserve’s operational independence, potentially delaying critical leadership decisions during a sensitive economic period.

A significant rift is emerging within the technology sector regarding the Pentagon’s stance on artificial intelligence development, particularly in the context of Anthropic’s legal battle with the Department of Defense.

Microsoft has publicly aligned with Anthropic, filing a court document arguing for a temporary restraining order to prevent the Pentagon from designating the AI startup as a supply chain risk. This move by Microsoft, a major investor in OpenAI and a key player in the AI race, signals a strategic positioning that emphasizes the importance of open development and collaboration in AI research, even when facing governmental scrutiny over data privacy and security protocols.

Conversely, Alphabet is deepening its engagement with the Defense Department. The Google parent company announced yesterday its intention to roll out a feature enabling the creation of custom AI agents on the Pentagon’s enterprise AI portal. This development highlights a bifurcated approach within the tech industry, with some companies prioritizing adversarial collaboration and others seeking to fortify existing partnerships with defense entities, potentially shaping the future landscape of AI integration in national security applications.

Amazon has secured a temporary injunction against Perplexity, blocking its AI browser Comet from accessing the e-commerce giant’s website. This legal victory underscores Amazon’s commitment to protecting its vast data repository and intellectual property from unauthorized automated data extraction.

The lawsuit, filed late last year, accused Perplexity of obscuring its AI agents’ activities in scraping Amazon’s site. U.S. District Judge Maxine Chesney found “strong evidence” that Comet had accessed Amazon’s platform without authorization, signaling a significant legal precedent for how AI-driven data collection will be regulated in the e-commerce space. This ruling highlights the escalating tension between data accessibility for AI training and the proprietary rights of online platforms.

Separately, a recent internal Amazon meeting focused on addressing recent service outages. While an internal document initially suggested generative AI-assisted production changes as a contributing factor, these references were notably absent from the discussion during the meeting. This points to ongoing internal evaluations of AI’s impact on system stability and operational resilience within one of the world’s largest e-commerce and cloud computing providers.

The average price for a gallon of gasoline has reached its highest point since 2024, according to AAA. Here are the key figures:

• Yesterday’s average price per gallon: $3.54
• Increase from a month ago: 21%