Lithography

ASML’s Q4 orders shattered expectations, reaching 13.2 billion euros, driven by soaring AI demand. The company forecasts a strong 2026 with sales between 34-39 billion euros, boosted by its crucial role in advanced chip manufacturing. Despite workforce reductions, ASML anticipates significant revenue growth from its EUV machines in 2026, as chipmakers expand production fueled by sustained AI trends and memory chip shortages.

Amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, ASML, a Dutch lithography systems manufacturer, is a key player. U.S. export restrictions, mirrored by Dutch licensing, limit China’s access to ASML’s advanced EUV technology, crucial for cutting-edge chip production. ASML anticipates a sales decline to Chinese customers. This impacts China’s semiconductor development, hindering its ability to compete with the U.S. Access to advanced semiconductors is vital, representing a critical fault line in the U.S.-China relationship, with implications for the global economic and geopolitical landscape.

TSMC maintains that its advanced chipmaking roadmap, including the 1.4-nanometer (A14) process, doesn’t currently require High-NA EUV lithography. The company is prioritizing optimizing their existing EUV technology, achieving significant performance improvements using innovative designs like their second-generation nanosheet GAA, delaying the need for the costly high-NA systems. This strategy highlights TSMC’s focus on cost-effectiveness and technological innovation.