Middle East Smartphone Market Surges 23% in Q3 2025, But Supply Constraints to Limit 2026 Growth to 1%

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11/20/2025 – 04:17 AM

LONDON – New data from Omdia indicates a robust resurgence in the Middle East’s smartphone market (excluding Turkey) for the third quarter of 2025. Shipments surged by 23% year-over-year, reaching 15.1 million units, signaling a strong consumer appetite for upgrades. This growth is fueled by increasing demand for mid-tier 4G and affordable 5G devices, as consumers transition from older or entry-level phones.

Middle east (excluding Turkey) smartphone market shipment, 1Q22 to 3Q25

Vendors have strategically targeted value-conscious consumers, particularly in emerging markets. This focus on affordable 4G models has been a key driver of adoption, demonstrating the continued relevance of the technology even as 5G networks expand. However, industry analysts suggest that the long-term sustainability of 4G dominance will depend on the pace of 5G infrastructure development and the affordability of 5G-enabled devices.

Regional performance varied. Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest market, saw a slight 2% dip due to slower retail activity during extended summer holidays. In contrast, the UAE experienced a 13% increase, boosted by aggressive promotions from major retailers and seasonal events. Iraq and the Rest of Middle East exhibited strong growth at 41% and 70% respectively, driven by increased vendor engagement, improved channel incentives, and consistent demand in entry-level segments.

Manish Pravinkumar, Principal Analyst at Omdia, notes that while the region showed strong growth, Average Selling Prices (ASPs) remained soft as vendors prioritized volume through expanded entry-level portfolios. “Samsung maintained its market leadership with 22% growth, driven by its Galaxy A17 4G/5G lineup and sustained demand for its A-series models. TRANSSION witnessed a remarkable 47% rebound, fueled by TECNO’s expanding presence in lower-ASP markets and its appeal to Asian and African expatriate communities.” This success highlights the importance of catering to specific demographic groups and their unique needs.

Xiaomi reported a 35% increase after restructuring its channel partnerships and increasing regional investments. The opening of its first flagship store in Dubai signals a strategic shift towards direct-to-consumer sales, mirroring a trend seen in other global markets. HONOR recorded the highest year-on-year growth at 128%, attributed to portfolio diversification, strong partnerships with operators and retailers, and an emphasis on its broader ecosystem. Apple also rebounded with double-digit growth (14%) following several quarters of inconsistent performance, driven by strong initial sales of the iPhone 17 series.

Looking ahead, Omdia forecasts a slowdown in Middle East smartphone market growth to a modest 1% in 2026, a significant decrease from the 13% projected for 2025. This anticipated deceleration is largely attributed to rising component costs and supply chain constraints expected in the first half of 2026. These challenges will disproportionately impact lower-ASP markets, underscoring the need for robust channel engagement and targeted incentives. The mid-to-premium segment is expected to demonstrate more resilience, with upgrades primarily driven by Apple and Samsung, fueled by their robust ecosystems and strong brand loyalty. To sustain demand, retailers will need to offer innovative financing options, attractive trade-in programs, and targeted marketing campaigns. Ultimately, vendors that can balance cost control, product portfolio optimization, and service-led differentiation will be best positioned to capitalize on the region’s eventual return to growth.

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