Apple’s latest iPhone models are shown on display at its Regent Street, London store on the launch day of the iPhone 17.
Apple is projected to reach a new record for iPhone shipments in 2025, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series and a resurgence in its flagship market, China, according to research firm IDC.
IDC estimates Apple will ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, representing a 6 % year‑over‑year increase. That would surpass the 236 million units sold in 2021, the year the iPhone 13 debuted.
“The phenomenal success of the iPhone 17 lineup is the primary catalyst for this growth,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC. “In China, massive demand for the iPhone 17 has significantly accelerated Apple’s performance.”
In analyst terminology, “shipments” refer to the number of devices sent to retailers, carriers and e‑commerce partners. While not a direct measure of sales, shipments are a reliable proxy for market demand and inventory strategy.
When the iPhone 17 series launched in September, investors viewed the devices as a pivotal product line for Apple, especially as the company contends with intensifying competition in China and heightened scrutiny over its artificial‑intelligence roadmap.
IDC projects a 17 % year‑over‑year jump in Apple’s shipments in China during the fourth quarter, revising its outlook to 3 % market growth for the country in 2025—up from an earlier forecast of a 1 % decline. This optimism comes despite local rivals such as Huawei actively reclaiming market share.
Counterpoint Research recently issued a complementary forecast, suggesting Apple could out‑ship Samsung for the first time in 14 years in 2025. If Apple sustains this momentum, the company’s share‑price valuation could receive a further boost, given that higher unit volumes typically translate into stronger services revenue and higher average selling prices (ASPs) driven by premium configurations.
From a supply‑chain perspective, Apple’s ability to meet the projected shipment volume hinges on its tight partnership with Taiwanese contract manufacturers, notably Foxconn and Pegatron. Both firms have ramped up capacity at their Zhengzhou and Shanghai facilities, incorporating advanced automation AI‑driven yield‑optimization tools to reduce defect rates and shorten cycle times.
Technology analysts also note that the iPhone 17 series introduces a suite of AI‑centric features—on‑device neural processing, enhanced computational photography, and tighter integration with Apple’s large‑language‑model services. These capabilities not only differentiate the product in a crowded premium market but also open new revenue streams for Apple’s growing services ecosystem, including iCloud storage, Apple TV+, and the App Store.
However, Bloomberg reported that Apple may postpone the launch of the base‑model iPhone 18 until 2027, breaking its traditional annual fall cadence. IDC cautions that such a delay could shave approximately 4.2 % off Apple’s 2026 shipment volumes, underscoring the delicate balance between product timing and market expectations.
Overall, Apple’s projected shipment record reflects a confluence of strong product positioning, revitalized demand in its most critical overseas market, and sustained operational excellence. If the company can maintain its premium pricing strategy while expanding AI‑driven services, the iPhone 17 surge could be a catalyst for broader earnings growth through 2026.
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