5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens on Wednesday

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Here are five key themes investors should watch as the market opens:

Macy’s beat Wall Street’s top‑ and bottom‑line expectations for the third quarter, delivering its strongest growth in more than three years. The department‑store operator’s results add another data point to the ongoing narrative about U.S. consumer health.

• Despite the beat, Macy’s shares slipped more than 6% before the bell as management warned that consumer‑spending headwinds and tariff pressure could temper the next quarter’s performance.
• American Eagle Outfitters posted a 12% surge after beating earnings forecasts and issuing upbeat guidance for fourth‑quarter comparable sales. The brand credited high‑visibility ad campaigns featuring actress Sydney Sweeney and NFL star Travis Kelce for attracting new shoppers, though the promotions have yet to become a major revenue driver.
• The aggressive “denim war” between flagship apparel brands—American Eagle, Levi’s, Gap, and emerging label collaborations—reflects a broader shift toward lifestyle branding as retailers vie for post‑pandemic discretionary spend.
• Record‑breaking holiday traffic bolstered the outlook: more than 202 million Americans shopped during the five‑day Thanksgiving‑through‑Cyber‑Monday window, the highest figure tracked by the National Retail Federation since 2017.

Analysts see the mixed signals as a test of price elasticity. While foot‑traffic remains robust, margin pressure from promotional activity and higher input costs could compress earnings if consumers tighten discretionary spending amid lingering inflation.

President Donald Trump has pledged that tariffs will bring production jobs back to the United States. However, a recent Institute for Supply Management survey shows many executives expect the opposite: rising duties are prompting plans to trim headcount and offer severance packages. One respondent described the current environment as “more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic” because of persistent supply‑chain uncertainty.

A Federal Reserve report released last week confirmed a slight decline in employment over the past several weeks, reinforcing concerns that tariff‑driven cost pressures could translate into workforce reductions.

Investors will be watching today’s ADP private payroll estimate. Consensus among Dow Jones economists anticipates a modest gain of 40,000 jobs for November, but the margin of error remains wide given the competing forces of tariff impact and lingering pandemic‑era hiring trends.

OpenAI is feeling the heat as Alphabet and Anthropic close the gap in the artificial‑intelligence race. Earlier this week, Sam Altman circulated an internal “code‑red” memo, urging teams to accelerate improvements to the ChatGPT platform.

Alphabet’s Gemini 3 model recently outperformed industry benchmarks, and Anthropic is reportedly preparing one of the largest initial public offerings ever seen in the AI sector. These moves have shifted market sentiment: investors now view Google as the likely AI leader, while shares of OpenAI’s key hardware partners—Broadcom, Nvidia, and Microsoft—have stalled or slipped.

The competitive dynamics have broader implications. Cloud providers that partner with OpenAI may see reduced margins as pricing pressure intensifies, while chip makers could benefit from diversified demand if multiple AI players secure their own custom silicon. Analysts are closely monitoring OpenAI’s ability to monetize newer model iterations and maintain a differentiated developer ecosystem.

Broadcast‑station owners are accelerating consolidation attempts, but regulatory and governance hurdles remain. Nexstar is pursuing a purchase of Tegna, while Sinclair launched a hostile bid to acquire E.W. Scripps.

Both transactions aim to counteract the erosion of traditional cable‑bundle revenues by scaling advertising reach and negotiating better carriage terms. However, Sinclair’s family‑ownership structure has raised antitrust concerns, and the Nexstar‑Tegna deal would require modifications to long‑standing FCC rules that limit market concentration.

Industry observers warn that even successful mergers may not fully offset the shift toward streaming and digital‑first consumption, forcing legacy broadcasters to reinvent content monetization strategies and invest in over‑the‑top platforms.

Shares of Boeing surged more than 10%—their strongest day since April—after CFO Jay Malave signaled higher 2026 deliveries for the 737 and 787 families. He also indicated that certification for the 737‑10 variant could be secured later next year.

Malave emphasized that the expected delivery ramp‑up will be a “big driver” for cash flow, a crucial metric for a company that has not posted an annual profit since 2018. The outlook rests on a combination of renewed airline demand, a rebound in global travel, and the company’s progress in addressing supply‑chain constraints.

Analysts are factoring the certification timeline into earnings models, noting that a delayed 737‑10 entry could compress margins, while an on‑time launch would bolster Boeing’s competitive position against Airbus in the narrow‑body segment.

Correction: Nexstar is attempting to buy Tegna. An earlier version of this story misspelled the latter company’s name.

— Contributors: Gabrielle Fonrouge, Natalie Rice, Jeff Cox, Ashley Capoot, Dylan Butts, Pia Singh, Alex Sherman, Lillian Rizzo, Laya Neelakandan and Hayley Cuccinello. Edited by Josephine Rozzelle.