.Bitcoin Falls Almost 30% From Record High, a Historically Typical Move

Bitcoin’s more than 30% decline from its record high underscores the volatility that has come to define the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Historical cycles show that such price swings are not anomalies; they often precede the next rally, according to data compiled by CoinDesk.

After slipping to a low of roughly $80,000 in late April, Bitcoin rallied before falling again this week. When it dipped below $81,000, that represented a 36% drop from its all‑time high of about $126,000 set in October 2023. As of Thursday, the digital asset was trading just above $93,000—a 26% decline from its peak, according to CoinMetrics.

While the moves look dramatic in absolute terms, they fall within the range of Bitcoin’s historical price cycles.

Bitcoin’s price action is typically described in four‑year “cycles” that revolve around the protocol’s halving events—periodic reductions in block‑reward payouts baked into the code. Though the exact timing and shape of recent cycles may be shifting, the amplitude of price swings has remained relatively consistent.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin has already endured a 32.7% pullback from March to August 2024 and a 31.7% decline between January and April 2025, based on CoinDesk data.

“Looking at prior cycles, volatility of this magnitude aligns with long‑term trends,” said Jacob Joseph, senior research analyst at CoinDesk.

During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin experienced roughly 40% drawdowns twice in that year, followed by a 29% dip in November before topping out at a new all‑time high in December. The 2021 cycle saw a 31.2% fall in January, a 26% drop in February, and a steep 55% correction from April to June after China’s crackdown on mining operations. Despite those corrections, the asset managed to reclaim higher ground and hit a record near $69,000 in November 2021.

“Most mid‑cycle corrections, aside from the mining‑ban shock in 2021, occurred within a broader bullish structure and stayed above key technical levels such as the 50‑week moving average,” Joseph added.

Starting on October 10, more than 1.6 million traders saw leveraged positions wiped out for a combined loss of roughly $19.4 billion in a 24‑hour window. The cascade of liquidations forced many participants out of the market, creating a feedback loop that continues to reverberate.

“That was the biggest liquidation event in crypto’s history, and the market typically takes several weeks to fully digest the fallout and consolidate,” said Lucy Gazmararian, founder of Token Bay Capital, speaking to Access Middle East.

The timing of the event coincided with growing concerns that the broader bull market may be approaching its end, amplifying fear among investors.

From a business perspective, the volatility underscores the importance of robust risk‑management frameworks for firms with crypto exposure. Institutional players are increasingly turning to on‑chain analytics, real‑time liquidations monitoring, and diversified hedging strategies to mitigate downside risk.

Technologically, the upcoming halving in April 2024 (the next scheduled reduction in block rewards) will tighten supply further, potentially tightening miner margins. Companies that have invested in more efficient ASIC hardware or that are diversifying into renewable energy sources may better weather any post‑halving hash‑rate fluctuations.

Regulatory developments also remain a critical variable. While the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to clarify its stance on digital assets, jurisdictions such as the European Union are advancing the MiCA framework, which could standardize compliance requirements and affect market liquidity.

For long‑term holders, the historical pattern suggests that significant drawdowns are often followed by fresh rally phases. However, the “crypto winter” scenario—where prices settle 70–80% below peaks—has not yet materialized, leaving investors to grapple with the prospect of another steep correction.

Analysts caution that the intersection of macro‑economic headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and the imminent halving could shape Bitcoin’s next price trajectory. While the asset’s resilience across multiple cycles is encouraging for optimists, risk‑averse participants are likely to await clearer signals before committing fresh capital.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price movements continue to reflect a blend of technical fundamentals, market psychology, and external economic forces—a combination that makes it both a compelling speculative instrument and a barometer of broader crypto‑market health.