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Coinbase is preparing to launch an in‑house prediction market powered by Kalshi, according to a source familiar with the matter. The move is a strategic extension of the exchange’s product suite, aimed at diversifying the asset classes available to traders at a time when sentiment toward digital assets is softening.
The partnership will be announced formally within the next week. While the arrangement is not exclusive, Kalshi will be the sole prediction‑market operator working with Coinbase at launch, the source added.
Rumors about the new offering have been circulating for almost a month. An alleged screenshot of Coinbase’s prediction‑markets dashboard, posted by Silicon Valley researcher Jane Manchun Wong on X on November 18, hinted at the product’s user interface.
Industry outlets reported that Coinbase plans to unveil the prediction market at its “Coinbase System Update” event scheduled for December 17. The same reports indicated that the exchange could also introduce tokenized stocks at the showcase.
When asked for comment, Coinbase declined to confirm the details but urged observers to tune in to the upcoming event. The firm did not disclose a specific timeline for when the new contracts will become available to customers.
These product launches are part of a broader push to transform Coinbase into an “everything exchange” – a one‑stop platform for trading cryptocurrencies, tokenized equities, and event‑based contracts. In May, CEO Brian Armstrong outlined this vision to investors, stating that the company aims to become the world’s leading financial‑services app within the next decade.
The initiative comes amid intensifying competition from rivals such as Robinhood, Gemini and Kraken. All three platforms have rolled out tokenized equity products outside the United States over the past year and are exploring prediction‑market offerings to varying degrees.
Investor appetite for digital assets has cooled following a wave of leveraged‑position liquidations in mid‑October, which prompted a rotation into gold and other safe‑haven assets. Bitcoin, for example, slipped to roughly $85,000 in early December – its lowest level since the previous March – and remains down about 23% over the past three months. Coinbase’s stock has similarly declined more than 16% in the same period.
From a technical standpoint, integrating Kalshi’s event contracts requires seamless on‑chain and off‑chain data feeds, robust settlement mechanisms, and compliance with U.S. securities regulations. Kalshi’s platform uses a hybrid architecture that combines smart‑contract execution with a regulated clearinghouse to guarantee contract payouts, a model that could appeal to institutional clients seeking higher transparency and reduced counterparty risk.
Financially, prediction markets present a high‑margin revenue stream. Transaction fees on event contracts are typically lower than those on traditional trading, but the volume potential is significant because contracts can cover a wide range of macro‑economic indicators, corporate earnings, and political outcomes. If Coinbase can attract a critical mass of retail and professional traders, the new offering could contribute double‑digit percentage points to the company’s overall revenue growth.
Regulatory considerations remain a key factor. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been scrutinizing prediction‑market platforms for compliance with derivatives rules. Kalshi’s status as a registered CFTC derivatives exchange gives Coinbase a compliant foothold, but both firms will need to navigate ongoing regulatory developments, especially concerning the classification of crypto‑linked event contracts.
Kalshi itself is expanding its distribution network. Earlier this year, it embedded several of its prediction markets into Robinhood’s platform under a non‑exclusive agreement. The firm is now in talks with additional brokerage and crypto‑exchange partners, seeking to replicate the Coinbase deal and broaden its market reach as competition in the prediction‑market space intensifies.
Overall, the Coinbase–Kalshi collaboration highlights a shifting paradigm in digital finance: exchanges are increasingly blurring the lines between traditional securities, tokenized assets, and novel derivative products. Success will hinge on the ability to deliver reliable technology, maintain regulatory compliance, and capture user demand for diversified, data‑driven trading experiences.
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