Calgary, Alberta – Pembina Pipeline Corporation (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA) has unveiled its 2026 financial outlook, signaling a projected increase in adjusted EBITDA and highlighting strategic commercial developments. The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to fall within the range of $4.125 billion to $4.425 billion. This forecast represents a roughly 4% rise in fee-based adjusted EBITDA compared to the 2025 outlook, though this growth is expected to be tempered by a moderated contribution from the marketing segment, reflecting current commodity strip pricing for 2026.
This guidance reaffirms Pembina’s commitment to its three-year growth targets, with the midpoint of the 2026 outlook suggesting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% in fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share from 2023 to 2026. This aligns with the objectives set forth at its 2024 Investor Day. Furthermore, Pembina confirmed that its 2024-2026 capital investment program remains internally funded. The company plans to provide an update on its long-term growth trajectory beyond 2026 in the first quarter of 2026, contingent on the advancement of key strategic initiatives.
In a significant commercial development, Pembina has secured a 12-year agreement with Ovintiv Inc. for 0.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of capacity at the Cedar LNG facility. This agreement effectively remarkets Pembina’s total 1.5 mtpa of capacity at the facility, underscoring its disciplined approach to growth within established financial parameters. The Cedar LNG project’s expected annual run-rate adjusted EBITDA contribution, net to Pembina, has been revised to between US$220 million and US$280 million. This range reflects a 10% increase in the base contribution from the 3.0 mtpa of contracted capacity, offering robust secured cash flow with upside potential.
Pembina is also moving forward with a $200 million expansion of its Peace Pipeline System. This expansion is designed to increase propane-plus market delivery capacity to the Namao, Alberta hub by approximately 70,000 barrels per day. Anticipated to be in service by the first quarter of 2027, this project, alongside ongoing expansions on the northeast British Columbia system, will support the growing demand for liquids egress. The company’s commitment to meeting customer needs is further evidenced by a robust recontracting and new contract execution campaign throughout 2025, securing over 200,000 barrels per day of conventional pipeline transportation capacity.
Technological and strategic advancements are also on the horizon. The Greenlight Electricity Centre, a joint venture with Kineticor, is progressing towards a final investment decision in the first half of 2026. The project has secured a power grid allocation and advanced commercial agreements, positioning it to contribute to Alberta’s energy transition.
**Financial Outlook and Strategic Drivers for 2026**
Pembina’s 2026 financial guidance highlights a strategic balance between fee-based revenue growth and the projected moderation in its marketing business. The estimated adjusted EBITDA range of $4.125 billion to $4.425 billion is underpinned by several key drivers:
* **Fee-Based Growth:** An anticipated 4% increase in fee-based adjusted EBITDA is attributed to growing volumes across Pembina’s pipeline and facilities segments, the successful integration of recent acquisitions, and contributions from newly operational assets.
* **Marketing Business Outlook:** The marketing segment’s contribution is expected to be more subdued, reflecting current lower commodity strip pricing for 2026 compared to 2025 averages and historical ranges. This moderation is primarily driven by anticipated lower frac spreads due to softer NGL prices and higher natural gas prices, as well as narrower margins in crude oil marketing.
* **Capital Investment:** The capital investment program for 2026 is projected at approximately $1.6 billion, allocated across Pembina’s Pipelines and Facilities divisions, with significant contributions directed towards equity-accounted investees like Cedar LNG and Pembina Gas Infrastructure (PGI).
The company’s commitment to its three-year financial targets remains firm. The projected compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% in fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share from 2023 to 2026 reinforces its strategy of delivering consistent, long-term value. Furthermore, the capital investment program from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be fully self-funded, demonstrating financial discipline.
**Key Segmental Drivers:**
* **Pipelines Division:** While the Alliance Pipeline’s contribution is expected to be lower due to the impact of the Alliance Settlement, this will be partially offset by growth from other key assets like the Peace, Nipisi, and Cochin pipelines.
* **Facilities Division:** Growth here is largely driven by new assets coming online, including the Wapiti Expansion and K3 Cogeneration Facility, increased activity at Dawson and Duvernay facilities, and the RFS IV Expansion.
* **Marketing & New Ventures:** The anticipated lower contribution from this segment in 2026 is a direct consequence of prevailing market pricing dynamics, particularly for natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil.
**Strategic Developments and Infrastructure Expansions:**
* **Cedar LNG:** The remarketing of its full 1.5 mtpa capacity solidifies Pembina’s position in the growing global LNG market. The project is on schedule and budget, with construction of the floating LNG vessel progressing well.
* **Peace Pipeline System Expansion:** The $200 million expansion will enhance capacity to meet escalating demand for propane-plus and condensate, reinforcing Pembina’s role as a critical midstream infrastructure provider.
* **Northeast BC Pipeline Expansions:** Development continues on the Birch-to-Taylor and Taylor-to-Gordondale expansions, with construction slated to commence in a phased approach to address customer needs for liquids egress.
Pembina’s strategic focus on providing reliable and cost-effective energy infrastructure solutions aligns with the evolving energy landscape. The company’s proactive approach to expanding capacity and securing long-term commercial agreements positions it favorably to capitalize on robust production growth in Western Canada, driven by increasing LNG and oil export capacity. The organization also announced several executive retirements and appointments, streamlining its leadership structure to further support its strategic objectives.
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