Confidence within the U.S. middle market is seeing a significant rebound as 2026 begins, according to JPMorgan Chase’s annual Business Leaders Outlook survey. This renewed optimism, particularly among midsize companies, is setting a dynamic tone for the year ahead, with leaders prioritizing growth through strategic initiatives and technological adoption.
The survey, which polled U.S. business owners and leaders across various industries, reveals a bifurcated sentiment when comparing small and middle-market businesses. While small businesses maintain a steady outlook, they continue to grapple with persistent domestic challenges like inflation and wage pressures. In contrast, middle-market companies, often more susceptible to global economic shifts and policy changes, are expressing a notable resurgence in confidence.
**Middle Market: A Surge in Optimism Fuels Ambitious Growth Strategies**
Middle-market businesses are entering 2026 with an invigorated sense of optimism, approaching levels not seen since early 2025. Following a period of heightened concern around political uncertainties, tariffs, regulatory shifts, and global economic headwinds throughout 2025, sentiment is now on an upward trajectory.
Despite lingering anxieties, key concerns for middle-market leaders include economic uncertainty (49%), revenue and sales growth (33%), and tariffs and labor costs (both at 31%). While a majority (51%) do not foresee a recession in the coming year, optimism regarding the broader national economy stands at 39%. However, confidence in their own company’s prospects is significantly higher:
* **71% are optimistic about their company’s prospects**, a substantial increase from 58% in mid-2025 and nearing the 75% recorded in early 2025.
* **73% project increased revenue**, a notable jump from 50% in mid-2025, aligning with the 74% optimistic in early 2025.
* **48% anticipate an expansion of their workforce**, up from 37% in mid-2025, though slightly below the 51% in early 2025.
“There’s a tangible momentum building across the middle market as leaders gear up to execute ambitious growth plans,” said Melissa Smith, Co-Head of Commercial Banking at J.P. Morgan. “Companies are thinking innovatively about how to position themselves for the future, skillfully navigating complex macroeconomic factors.”
This forward-looking mindset is evident in the strategic priorities for 2026, with a strong emphasis on introducing new products or services (58%), expanding into new domestic and/or international markets (53%), and pursuing strategic partnerships or investments (49%). Mergers and acquisitions are also on the agenda for a significant portion (39%).
The survey also delves into the impact of technology, with middle-market firms increasingly recognizing the strategic imperative of integrating advanced solutions. Artificial intelligence, for instance, is being viewed not just as an efficiency driver but as a critical tool for competitive advantage and innovation. Many are exploring AI’s potential to optimize supply chains, enhance customer engagement, and unlock new revenue streams, signaling a proactive approach to technological integration.
**Small Business: Resilience and Strategic Adaptation Characterize the Outlook**
Small businesses are approaching 2026 with steady optimism and a pronounced focus on adaptability. Throughout 2025, these businesses demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of persistent cost pressures and evolving economic signals. While cost management remains a priority, a resolve has emerged, with sentiment showing an upward trend as the year progressed.
“Small business owners are operating with a combination of optimism and pragmatism,” noted Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business. “They are making judicious investments and doubling down on innovation, setting a positive trajectory for Main Street while adapting to dynamic market conditions.”
Notably, over 60% of small business owners feel more positive about their current business situation than at any point in the last five years. Key outlook indicators for 2026 include:
* **74% are optimistic about their company’s outlook**, a figure consistent with previous surveys in mid-2025 and late 2024.
* **76% expect revenue growth**, mirroring sentiments from mid-2025 and late 2024.
* **76% anticipate higher profits**, holding steady with previous reports.
* **53% plan to increase headcount**, a slight uptick from mid-2025.
* **Only 27% expect a recession**, a decrease from 39% in mid-2025.
Small business owners are keenly aware of the broader economic landscape, with inflation, cost pressures, and tariffs remaining significant concerns. Their strategies for 2026 include building financial reserves (47%), renegotiating supplier terms (36%), and increasing investments in marketing and technology. The adoption of AI is particularly noteworthy, with 59% deeming it essential for competitiveness within three years and 61% expecting it to streamline operations. Over half anticipate economic stabilization and improved supply chain efficiency.
The strategic integration of technology, including cloud computing and data analytics, is becoming a cornerstone for small businesses seeking to optimize operations, enhance customer experiences, and gain a competitive edge in an increasingly digital marketplace.
**Navigating a Complex Global Landscape**
Business leaders, regardless of size, acknowledge that factors such as geopolitical shifts, global competition, supply chain vulnerabilities, and cybersecurity threats are significant external forces. Effectively navigating this environment requires access to robust insights and specialized expertise.
The JPMorgan Chase Institute continues to provide data-driven analysis to inform decision-making across sectors. Additionally, the JPMorgan Chase Center for Geopolitics (CfG) offers advisory services on anticipating and responding to key geopolitical trends.
“Engaging with clients daily provides our team with a unique perspective on how geopolitical uncertainty compels business leaders to re-evaluate their strategic playbooks,” stated Derek Chollet, Head of the Center for Geopolitics. “Leveraging JPMorgan Chase’s extensive global financial institution capabilities uniquely positions us to guide clients in making informed decisions that bolster their commercial and competitive advantages.”
**Methodology**
The JPMorgan Chase Business Leaders Outlook survey was conducted online between November 11-26, 2025, for small businesses (annual revenues between $100,000 and $20 million) and November 4-26, 2025, for midsize businesses (annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million). A total of 2,471 U.S. business owners and leaders participated. For trend analysis, current data is compared to fourth-quarter data from previous years. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% for small business findings and +/- 3.4% for midsize business findings, at a 95% confidence level.
**About JPMorgan Chase**
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm. As of September 30, 2025, the firm had assets of $4.6 trillion and stockholders’ equity of $360 billion. It is a leader in investment banking, consumer and small business financial services, commercial banking, financial transaction processing, and asset management.
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