Global power rivalries and strategic standoffs are identified as the most severe near-term risks heading into 2026, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report. The survey reveals a stark outlook, with a significant majority of business executives and leaders anticipating turbulent times over the next two years, while only a small fraction expect a period of calm. This sentiment paints a picture of a world teetering on the edge of instability.
The report highlights a seismic shift in the global landscape, with geoeconomic confrontation now topping the list of business concerns for the immediate future. This escalation is largely driven by intensified competition and the increasing weaponization of economic tools, including tariffs, regulatory measures, supply chain disruptions, and capital controls. The WEF warns that these trends could precipitate a substantial contraction in global trade, a development that would ripple through international commerce.
“Countries are grappling with the specter of economic downturns, persistent inflation, and the potential for asset bubbles, all exacerbated by substantial debt burdens and volatile market conditions,” notes Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum.
Marsh, a global leader in risk and insurance services, which rebranded from Marsh McLennan, partners with the WEF on its global risks analysis. John Doyle, CEO of Marsh, shared his perspective, stating, “We are not in a moment of a single global crisis, but rather a period of poly-crises.”
Doyle enumerated trade wars, cultural divides, the rapid pace of technological change, and the escalating impact of extreme weather events as significant challenges confronting businesses today. “These are substantial hurdles for organizations to navigate and manage effectively,” he remarked.
The WEF’s report places misinformation and disinformation as the second most significant short-term risk, closely followed by societal polarization—the widening chasm between ideologically opposed groups. Looking at the longer term, over the next decade, inequality is flagged as the most interconnected risk. These compounding factors collectively hinder the necessary cooperation required to effectively address economic shocks.
A notable surge in concern surrounds the potential adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence. AI’s position as a short-term risk has dramatically climbed, moving from 30th place last year to fifth among long-term risks in the latest rankings. The report posits that labor displacement driven by AI could exacerbate income inequality, deepen societal divisions, reduce consumer spending, and create detrimental cycles of economic contraction and social unrest, even amidst significant productivity gains. The convergence and accelerating development of machine learning and quantum computing are creating a complex landscape that “may lead to situations in which humans lose control,” the report cautions.
Despite these technological anxieties, extreme weather events remain the foremost concern for surveyed leaders over the next ten years. Global insured losses from natural catastrophes are projected to exceed $107 billion in 2025, marking the sixth consecutive year that losses surpass the $100 billion threshold—a substantial increase compared to the early 2000s.
Doyle pointed to the California wildfires in early 2025 as an example underscoring the need for regulatory frameworks that enable insurance rates to accurately reflect underlying risks. Such adjustments are critical for attracting more capital to the insurance market. “There are risk-takers, investors, and insurance companies ready to finance these risks,” Doyle stated. “It’s also about ensuring building codes are appropriate, that we learn from past events, and that technologies are deployed to manage risk effectively.”
The report further warns that “extreme heat, drought, wildfires, and other extreme weather events are likely to become more intense and frequent.” Paradoxically, environmental risks such as “critical changes to Earth systems,” “biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse,” and pollution have receded in urgency on the risk list, indicating a shift in what leaders perceive as their most pressing concerns.
The WEF’s concluding message emphasizes the critical role of “coalitions of the willing,” advocating for robust collaborations among governments, academic institutions, businesses, and private citizens to build resilience and devise actionable solutions to the world’s most formidable challenges.
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