5 Must-Knows Before Wednesday’s Stock Market Open

Good morning, and welcome to what promises to be a pivotal “Jobs Wednesday.” While the January nonfarm payrolls report has been delayed by the recent government shutdown, the global stage of the Winter Olympics has provided a welcome distraction. Norway currently leads the medal count, with the United States holding a respectable fifth place.

U.S. stock futures are showing a modest uptick this morning, following a mixed performance across the major averages yesterday. Investors are poised for a day of significant economic data and corporate news.

Here are five key developments shaping the market landscape:

### 1. Labor Market Under Scrutiny

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the January nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 AM ET, five days later than originally scheduled. Economists are bracing for a report that may indicate minimal, if any, job growth for the month.

* **Consensus Estimates:** The Dow Jones consensus anticipates an increase of 55,000 jobs, a slight uptick from December’s 50,000. However, other Wall Street forecasts suggest even more conservative numbers.
* **Benchmark Revisions:** The report will also include final benchmark revisions for the twelve months preceding March 2025. These revisions have the potential to significantly alter or even negate employment gains recorded during that period, adding a layer of uncertainty to the headline figures.
* **Broader Economic Context:** This labor report arrives on the heels of several other economic indicators pointing to a labor market under pressure. Yesterday’s December retail sales data revealed a notable slowdown in consumer spending, further fueling concerns about economic momentum.
* **White House Commentary:** Even administration officials are tempering expectations. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett recently indicated that investors should “expect slightly smaller job numbers,” citing factors such as a declining labor force participation rate, partly attributed to immigration policies, and rising productivity levels.
* **Market Reaction:** Stock futures are trading higher ahead of the jobs report. Yesterday, the S&P 500 saw a 0.33% decline, with financial stocks particularly impacted by investor anxieties surrounding the potential disruption of artificial intelligence on the sector.

### 2. Ford Navigates Challenges, Eyes Rebound

Ford Motor Company reported its most significant quarterly earnings miss in four years yesterday. The automaker posted adjusted earnings per share of 13 cents for its fourth quarter, falling 32% short of the 19 cents projected by Wall Street analysts. Ford cited approximately $900 million in unforeseen tariff costs and the impact of a fire at an aluminum plant crucial for its F-Series pickup truck production as primary culprits.

Despite these headwinds, Ford is strategically positioning itself for a turnaround in 2026. The company forecasts improvements in adjusted EBIT, adjusted free cash flow, and capital expenditures compared to the previous year. The plan hinges on the performance of its traditional internal combustion engine and fleet segments to offset anticipated losses of $4 billion to $4.5 billion from its electric vehicle division this year. This aggressive pivot highlights the complex balancing act facing legacy automakers as they invest in electrification while managing existing profitability streams.

### 3. Moderna’s Flu Shot Application Faces Regulatory Hurdles

Moderna shares experienced a pre-market decline of over 10% following the announcement that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has refused to review its application for an experimental flu vaccine. This decision marks another instance of heightened regulatory scrutiny on vaccine development under the current administration, as reported by CNBC.

Moderna expressed that the FDA’s refusal deviates from previous guidance provided by the agency and that no specific safety or efficacy concerns were raised regarding the vaccine itself. Instead, the FDA cited issues with Moderna’s study design, a design that had reportedly received prior approval from the agency. This situation underscores the evolving and potentially unpredictable nature of regulatory pathways in the biotechnology sector, particularly when novel approaches or study methodologies are involved.

### 4. Epstein Files Continue to Unsettle Political Circles

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick acknowledged yesterday that he visited Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee that he and his family had lunch there during a vacation. This admission comes amidst growing calls for his resignation, fueled by recently unsealed court documents that suggest a more extensive relationship with Epstein than previously disclosed. Lutnick maintained that he had minimal contact with Epstein after 2005 and asserted that he “did not have any relationship” with the convicted sex offender.

The fallout from the Epstein case is also extending into British politics. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing pressure regarding his past appointment of Peter Mandelson as a U.S. ambassador, given Mandelson’s known associations with Epstein. The ongoing revelations from these files continue to cast a shadow over prominent figures, highlighting the long-term reputational and political consequences associated with past associations.

### 5. Estée Lauder Pursues Legal Action Against Walmart Over Counterfeits

Cosmetics giant Estée Lauder has filed a lawsuit against Walmart, alleging that the retail behemoth sold counterfeit beauty products through its online marketplace. The complaint, filed earlier this week, states that Estée Lauder purchased items bearing its trademarks from Walmart.com and subsequently determined them to be inauthentic.

While the counterfeit products were reportedly sold by third-party vendors, Estée Lauder contends that Walmart facilitated these sales, characterizing the conduct as “despicable and harmful.” Notably, two of the specific counterfeit items identified by Estée Lauder were previously featured in a CNBC investigation from September into fake beauty products and fraudulent activity on Walmart’s marketplace. The timing of Estée Lauder’s purchases and testing relative to CNBC’s investigation remains unclear, leaving open the question of whether these are the same items. This legal action underscores the persistent challenges faced by brands in policing their intellectual property and consumer safety in the complex ecosystem of online marketplaces.

### The Daily Dividend: Prediction Markets See Super Bowl Frenzy

Kalshi, a financial prediction market, experienced a significant surge in activity during the Super Bowl weekend. CEO Tarek Mansour reported that wagers placed solely on Bad Bunny’s opening performance alone exceeded $100 million in volume. According to Mansour, Kalshi’s overall trading volume on Sunday reached over $1 billion, marking a remarkable 2,700% increase year-over-year.

* **Trading Volume:** Exceeding $1 billion.
* **Year-over-Year Growth:** A staggering 2,700% increase.

This heightened activity illustrates the growing mainstream appeal and engagement with prediction markets for large-scale cultural events.