SpaceX shares experienced a significant surge on Monday, closing up 4% and surpassing its initial public offering price of $135 for the first time since mid-July. This rebound marks a notable recovery for the aerospace giant’s stock, which had experienced considerable volatility in the post-IPO trading period, dipping as low as $108.27 just days prior.
The upward momentum follows SpaceX’s recent announcement of better-than-expected revenue for the second quarter of 2026, a pivotal moment in its first earnings report since its historic Nasdaq debut in June. The company reported $7.81 billion in revenue, exceeding the $6.93 billion projected by analysts. This strong performance underscores the robust demand for SpaceX’s diverse offerings.
Further bolstering investor confidence, SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen indicated during the earnings call that the company is on track to achieve $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have echoed this optimism, deeming the target “likely very achievable.” They attribute this ambitious projection primarily to the contributions from SpaceX’s burgeoning “neocloud” business, a strategic expansion into cloud computing infrastructure, and the recent acquisition of AI coding company Cursor. This dual focus on cutting-edge technologies signals SpaceX’s strategic diversification beyond its core launch services.
SpaceX navigated a significant hurdle last week with the expiration of its first stock lockup period on Thursday. This event unlocked over 911 million shares for early investors, a quantity exceeding the shares sold during the IPO itself. While some analysts had cautioned about potential near-term volatility, the stock’s subsequent rise suggests that market concerns may be easing, or that the strong fundamentals are overshadowing potential selling pressure.
Prior to SpaceX’s earnings report and the lockup expiration, notional short interest in SpaceX had notably surpassed that of Tesla, a common target for short sellers. However, the positive quarterly results have clearly shifted sentiment, with many analysts maintaining a bullish outlook.
Analysts at Citi, for instance, revised their 2026 and 2027 forecasts upward, citing the “2Q26 beat” as a key driver. They reiterated their “buy” rating on the stock. While acknowledging that future projections and valuation are significantly tied to the success of milestones like the Starship program, Citi analysts maintained their price target of $200, with a stated intention to adjust it towards their long-term valuation of over $900 as major developmental objectives are met.
Wolfe Research also noted the “big beats” in SpaceX’s second-quarter performance but advised investors to maintain a degree of prudence. Their commentary suggested a need to differentiate between management’s ambitious aspirations and the most probable outcomes, a common sentiment when evaluating rapidly innovating technology companies with long-term growth trajectories.
SpaceX stock chart.
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