In a fresh outlook released this week, Boeing forecasts a robust demand for commercial airplanes over the next two decades, despite tempering some growth expectations. The aerospace giant’s latest *Commercial Market Outlook* anticipates the delivery of 43,600 new aircraft worldwide by 2044. While this figure is slightly down from last year’s projection for 43,975 deliveries by 2043, it still paints a picture of substantial expansion in the global aviation industry.
The report suggests that approximately 51% of the new aircraft demand will stem from growth, rather than the replacement of older models.
Breaking down the numbers, Boeing plans to deliver nearly 33,300 single-aisle aircraft, over 7,800 widebody jets, 955 freighters, and 1,545 regional jets. Single-aisle aircraft are slated to account for a dominant 80% of total deliveries.
However, Boeing has adjusted its expectations for passenger traffic growth, lowering the forecast from 4.7% to 4.2%. Correspondingly, global economic growth projections were also revised from 2.6% to 2.3%, and air cargo growth expectations were reduced from 4.1% to 3.7%.
Despite these revisions, Darren Hulst, Boeing’s Vice President of Commercial Marketing, emphasized the resilience of long-term demand, especially in the face of fluctuating global trade dynamics. He highlighted the sustained growth in the air cargo market, which has consistently averaged around 4% per year over the past several decades. Hulst also pointed out that, although air travel has rebounded strongly since the pandemic, current aircraft production rates are still only at half, or even less, of pre-pandemic levels. This has led to a global shortage of approximately 1,500 to 2,000 aircraft.
Currently, Boeing and its main competitor. Airbus, are both striving to ramp up production to pre-COVID levels. However, Boeing has been navigating production and quality control challenges in the past year. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has restricted the monthly production rate of its pivotal 737 model to 38 aircraft.
Adding to the headwinds, the announcement of the forecast coincided with a tragic incident. On June 12th, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner operated by an Indian airline crashed shortly after takeoff near Ahmedabad Airport in India. The airline confirmed 242 people were on board. Subsequent reports from Indian authorities indicated that all 242 passengers and crew perished in the crash, along with an additional 37 fatalities on the ground. This marks the first fatal crash for the 787 model since its introduction, and international teams have been dispatched to aid in the investigation.
The news had an immediate impact on the market, with Boeing’s stock plunging over 4% on the day of the announcement, pulling down the broader aviation sector. Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun has cancelled his appearance at the Paris Air Show and is focusing on assisting with the investigation of the crash.
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