5 Things to Know Before Thursday’s Market Open

Good morning. As the NFL’s global ambitions continue to expand, the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams are set to make history tonight in Melbourne, Australia, marking the league’s first-ever regular-season game Down Under. This strategic international play underscores the NFL’s broader push for new revenue streams and fan engagement in key overseas markets, a trend that could significantly impact future media rights deals and sponsorship opportunities.

U.S. stock futures are signaling a weaker opening this morning, following a down session for all three major averages on Wednesday. Investors are navigating a complex landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions, evolving monetary policy signals, and the ongoing earnings season’s implications for corporate profitability.

Here are five key developments investors need to monitor as the trading day unfolds:

Brent crude futures are hovering above the $100 per barrel mark, a level that has drawn sharp commentary from President Donald Trump. He suggested yesterday that elevated oil and gas prices are unlikely to subside until after the upcoming November midterm elections, while also predicting a swift resolution to the Iran conflict post-election. This linkage between election cycles and energy prices highlights the delicate interplay of political rhetoric, market sentiment, and actual supply-demand dynamics in the global oil market.

Key takeaways:

• Brent crude futures surpassed $101 per barrel on Wednesday, reaching their highest closing price since May. This surge is largely attributed to escalating concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies stemming from renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor in this geopolitical risk assessment.
• U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also breached the $100 per barrel threshold in early trading today, contributing to the downward pressure on stock futures. The proximity of WTI and Brent prices underscores the global nature of crude oil pricing and its sensitivity to geopolitical events.
• When questioned about explaining high energy costs to the American public, President Trump stated, “I think it’s very easy to explain to America. All you have to do is say, ‘Will you let Iran have a nuclear weapon?’ And the answer is no.” This framing attempts to tie energy costs directly to national security concerns, a common political strategy during periods of economic stress.
• In a forceful address at the GOP midterm convention last night, the President issued a stern warning to Tehran, advising them “not to get cute,” particularly in reference to activities at a suspected Iranian nuclear site. The potential for further escalation in the Middle East introduces significant uncertainty for energy markets and broader economic stability.

Apple officially entered the highly competitive foldable smartphone market yesterday, a move that could reshape the premium device landscape. The company’s new CEO, John Ternus, unveiled the highly anticipated iPhone Duo at its annual product event. Priced starting at $1,999, the device features a passport-sized form factor that unfolds into a 7.6-inch display, a price point that surprised some analysts who had anticipated a higher valuation. Availability is slated for October 23rd.

Beyond the foldable innovation, Apple’s announcement spree included a significant upgrade to its AI-powered Siri, the introduction of the new A20 Pro chip, and a novel Apple Watch feature capable of transcribing, summarizing, and recalling conversational snippets. These advancements underscore Apple’s strategic push into artificial intelligence and wearable technology, aiming to enhance user experience and ecosystem integration. The company also announced a $100 price increase for its iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, citing rising component costs, a reflection of broader supply chain pressures impacting the tech industry.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced yesterday its intention to conduct debt buybacks totaling up to $6 billion, a move that triples the typical volume, as part of an effort to stabilize the bond market. Future buyback operations are projected to average at least $4 billion. This intervention comes amid a particularly challenging period for Treasury yields, which have recently reached levels not seen in over a decade.

However, the Treasury’s announcement provided little immediate relief to the market. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.8% shortly after the news, marking its highest point since November 2023. This resilience in yield suggests that the market may be pricing in a persistent inflationary environment or a continued demand for higher returns in a tightening credit cycle. The effectiveness of such buyback programs in the face of broader macroeconomic forces remains a key point of observation.

Adding a layer of political intrigue, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed the Republican midterm convention in Texas. This public appearance by a sitting Treasury secretary at a partisan event has drawn scrutiny. Analysts suggest that such political engagement could potentially impact perceptions of his credibility, a factor considered vital for the Treasury’s operations in the sensitive bond market.

Shares of Macy’s are trading approximately 5% lower this morning, despite the department store operator reporting a robust set of second-quarter results. The company posted comparable sales growth of 2.7% and raised its full-year forecasts for both net and comparable sales, as well as its earnings per share outlook. This performance indicates a degree of resilience in a challenging retail environment.

Macy’s attributed its improved performance, in part, to the success of its redesigned store formats and the receipt of $116 million in tariff refunds. Of this refund amount, $96 million is earmarked for investment in customer experience enhancements and the company’s ongoing turnaround initiatives. CEO Tony Spring expressed confidence in the company’s transformation, stating, “I think it’s a different Macy’s Inc. today.” As Macy’s approaches the conclusion of its three-year turnaround plan, its ability to sustain growth against a backdrop of shifting consumer behavior and intense competition among department stores will be critical.

Hollywood has experienced its most lucrative summer season on record, generating an impressive $4.76 billion in domestic box office revenue between May 1st and Labor Day. This stellar performance was propelled by major releases such as “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” and “The Odyssey.”

However, this record-breaking figure masks significant underlying shifts within the film industry. The number of wide releases has decreased, cinema screens are fewer, and overall moviegoer attendance remains below pre-pandemic levels. The primary driver of this revenue surge appears to be the substantial increase in ticket prices. The average cost of a standard movie ticket has risen to approximately $12.75, a notable jump from $9.16 in 2019, with premium formats commanding even higher prices. This trend suggests a move towards a more premium-focused entertainment model, where higher ticket prices compensate for reduced volume.

President Trump introduced a new campaign pledge during his address at the midterm convention last night: a direct payment of $5,000 to every adult U.S. citizen, contingent on Republicans retaining control of both the House and Senate in November. Details regarding the funding mechanisms and implementation of this proposal, which is estimated to cost over $1 trillion, were not elaborated upon. Such a policy would likely face significant fiscal and legal scrutiny.

Here is my promise: If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate… I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.