In the dynamic world of consumer electronics, the foldable smartphone market is bracing for a pivotal moment in 2025. After years of explosive triple-digit growth, this niche sector is projected to hit a significant inflection point. According to Counterpoint Research, the global shipments are forecast to experience a modest 2.9% increase in 2024. The forecast for 2025, however, is far more sobering: the market could post its first-ever single-digit decline.
“There aren’t many positive factors in the market this year,” notes Jene Park, a senior analyst at Counterpoint. She attributes this slowdown partly to the performance of industry leader Samsung, and also to adjustments in production scales by manufacturers like OPPO.
Yet, this macroeconomic slowdown belies the burgeoning anticipation surrounding a potential game-changer: Apple’s much-rumored entry into the foldable device arena. During an investor call, Jingyan Technology, a supplier, noted, “Reports of a North American customer (widely understood to mean Apple) launching a foldable phone are circulating. We believe that its release could set a precedent for the industry, addressing current challenges in foldables, which would be beneficial for the market.”
As Liu Yushi, research director at CINNO Research, observed, “After years of iterative improvements within the supply chain, foldable screen technology is now mature. Related supply chains have the capacity to support Apple’s entry.”
This dichotomy – a shrinking market juxtaposed with the entry of a dominant player – is poised to be one of the most compelling narratives in the global consumer electronics landscape. A source within the industry, speaking with another news outlet, hinted that a major manufacturer is likely already in the New Product Introduction (NPI) phase for folding devices aimed at Apple.
**Apple’s Entry: Reshaping the Landscape**
Foldable smartphones, hailed as the future of mobile innovation, have undergone a wild ride in the market. After a period of rapid expansion, this once-hyped segment now faces a crucial “stress test.”
Counterpoint Research’s recent report projects a mere 2.9% growth in global foldable phone shipments for 2024, a stark contrast to the triple-digit gains of previous years. More concerning is the forecast for 2025, which suggests the market will shrink for the first time.
Jene Park attributes the slowdown to factors ranging from lackluster performance in some markets by Samsung to strategic production adjustments by brands like OPPO for their clamshell-style foldable phones.
Simultaneously, a subtle shift is underway in the Chinese smartphone market. CINNO Research’s data reveals that the proportion of high-end smartphones, priced at RMB 5,000 and above, has risen steadily from 11% in 2020 to 27% in 2024.
“While smartphone growth has plateaued, high-end phones are demonstrating steady upward momentum,” commented Liu Yushi.
As the archetypal premium device, foldable phones are also gaining ground. Liu anticipates China’s foldable phone penetration rate to climb, from about 2.5% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024.
It is at this crossroads of macroeconomic contraction and structural growth that Apple is poised to enter the foldable arena. According to prominent Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple supplier Foxconn is expected to begin producing foldable iPhones by late Q3 or early Q4 2025.
This venture represents more than just launching a new product line for Apple. It’s a move to identify the next engine of profitability and brand equity, particularly amid a slowing growth for the iPhone.
“Foldable screen technology is mature enough, thanks to years of supply chain improvements, which can support Apple’s entry,” said Liu.
The Android market, after years of innovation, has seen a maturation of its technologies. Flexible OLED panel yield is improving, and Ultra-Thin Glass (UTG) cover technology is becoming more robust. Hinge technology has also advanced from U-shaped and waterdrop designs to various complex forms. The technical challenges that once plagued Android manufacturers have, for the most part, been addressed, paving the way for Apple’s entrance.
“Apple’s advantage will lie in its late-mover advantage, benefitting from mature supply chain scale and technologies, thereby enabling better cost management,” Liu concludes.
The screen supply chain has expanded from Samsung’s dominance to include players like BOE (000725.SZ), Visionox (002387.SZ), TCL CSOT, and Tianma (000050.SZ), creating a more competitive landscape for Apple in terms of cost control and supply security.
Then there is Apple’s substantial software ecosystem. “Given Apple’s long-term investments in iOS and iPad products, it has a favorable starting position for adapting to the foldable screen ecosystem,” noted Liu.
With these technical and ecosystem advantages in hand, Apple’s entry has ignited high expectations within the industry. Jingyan Technology, stated, “Reports about a North American customer launching foldable phones are prevalent. We believe that their product could guide the industry and solve the pain points of current foldable phones, which will benefit the market.”
These “pain points” encompass issues like creases, thickness, durability, and software features, including app customization. Industry leaders believe that Apple’s commitment to quality will set a new standard, pushing Android manufacturers into further innovation.
There are varied perspectives on the impact of Apple’s entry.
Reports indicate that Apple’s first foldable device might be priced at over $2,000, with annual shipments possibly reaching several million units, and total life cycle sales between 15 and 20 million units. Liu Yushi acknowledged these rumors but stressed that the information is subject to change before Apple officially commits to the project.
A source within an Apple supply chain company offered a more cautious view. The person predicted that Apple’s initial volumes won’t be massive. The source downplayed earlier optimistic forecasts of tens of millions of units per year, calling them “absurd.”
Regardless, Apple’s presence will have a major sway on the 16 million foldable phones sold in 2024. Furthermore, the industry will monitor how entry changes the market leaders, currently dominated by Samsung, Huawei, Motorola, Honor, Xiaomi, and OPPO, according to Counterpoint Research data.
**Supply Chains See Potential**
According to Liu Yushi, “Foldable structures and screen suppliers are often part of the Apple supply chain, creating overlaps.”
Therefore, Apple’s project could immediately benefit its core suppliers, including Foxconn, Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ), Lingyi iTech (002600.SZ), and Lens Technology (300433.SZ). Lens Technology’s representatives stated that the company has been among the earliest suppliers to the foldable technology, and had already been heavily involved with the technology before its maturity. The same representative added, “We anticipate an increase in our revenue as major clients release high-volume models.”
Jingyan Technology, another Apple supplier, revealed in its investor communications, “The company has been working closely with major clients for years on cutting-edge technology development, which requires a certain amount of time and cycle to reach production.”
Additional supply chain companies, such as Luxshare Precision and Lingyi iTech, have publicly entered the foldable device industry.
Meanwhile, Liu Yushi added that Samsung Display is also reportedly preparing screens for the folding iPhone. Furthermore, companies like Boliter (688333.SH) have the potential to supply essential components like hinges and mid-frames.
In response to the anticipation of Apple integrating the technology, the Chinese domestic foldable screen supply chains have been activated.
Liu remarks, “The high-value parts of foldable phones, namely screens, hinges, covers, batteries, and cooling units, have significant profit margins due to their technical complexity and concentrated supply chains.”
The display, the highest-cost component that best demonstrates technical prowess, is naturally a focal point. Counterpoint Research’s senior analyst, Memgmeng Zhang, told another news outlet that the panel remains the most costly part of a foldable phone, representing over the main processing chip, with hinges making up about 18% of the device’s cost.
Current market leaders have been supplying Android foldable devices. China’s four display suppliers have achieved this.
“Foldable phones are quickly evolving from a niche to a mainstay,” stated Visionox, adding that the company has been deeply studying the inner-folding, outer-folding, and tri-folding form factors, as well as supplying multiple brand customers.
Tianma, another display supplier, declared that it has supplied the key screen components for TECNO’s first tri-fold concept phone, PHANTOM ULTIMATE 2.
Outside of displays, there is a new growth surge in segments like FPC (flexible printed circuit boards), hinges, and UTG.
Pengding Holding (002938.SZ) stated that, “The increase in the amount of FPC used in foldable phones will bring us more growth.” Pengding Holding is currently the largest flexible circuit manufacturer, and due to the many bends needed, the FPC demand is higher in foldable phones.
Hinges, meanwhile, are mentioned with Jingyan’s financial reports. UTG is at the production stage with manufacturers like Changxin Technology (300088.SZ) and Kaisheng Technology (600552.SH)
Despite the cooling off of the foldable phone market this year, Apple’s entry has delivered a positive signal to the supply chain.
“The current market signals from the supply chain point to constant growth in orders for foldable screens” said Calvin Lee, Director of Research at Counterpoint Research. “From where we are standing now, this doesn’t appear to be a stagnant market. Instead, it appears to be a market on the verge of change. And, since adjustments call for careful planning, the market has seen a brief correction this year.”
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