As reported by CNBC AI News on July 20th, a discussion titled “Encountering a True Expert on 12306 Ticket Purchasing” is trending on Weibo today, generating significant buzz.
The online fervor stems from a detailed analysis by a netizen who dissected the underlying logic of China’s national railway ticketing system, 12306, particularly its ticket allocation and waitlist (houbu) functionalities. The user’s insights have sparked widespread debate and, to some extent, demystified the perceived opacity of the system.
According to this internet sleuth, 12306 prioritizes maximizing revenue per available seat-kilometer (RASK), a key metric in the transportation industry. The waitlist feature, rather than being a passive queue, actively informs the railway authorities about unmet travel demand, functioning similarly to posting a ride request on ride-hailing platforms.
The user illustrates this point with an example: attempting to purchase a ticket for the G99 train (Shanghai Hongqiao to Hong Kong West Kowloon) from Jingdezhen to Ganzhou. Even when tickets go on sale 15 days in advance, travelers may find no seats available. This isn’t necessarily due to a lack of capacity, but rather a strategic decision by the railway.
The economics are straightforward: selling a seat only for the Jingdezhen-Ganzhou segment may leave the Shanghai-Jingdezhen and Ganzhou-Hong Kong West Kowloon segments unoccupied, resulting in lost potential revenue. Therefore, resourceful passengers might check for availability from Shanghai Hongqiao all the way to Hong Kong West Kowloon, often finding seats available.
The crucial step, according to the analysis, is utilizing the waitlist function. When multiple passengers submit requests for portions of the journey – for instance, Shanghai Hongqiao to Jingdezhen *and* Ganzhou to Hong Kong West Kowloon – the system can simultaneously release those seats, optimizing revenue by filling the entire Shanghai-Hong Kong route.
The analyst acknowledges the common preference for continuously refreshing the ticket page in hopes of snagging a seat. However, the railway authorities actively encourage the use of the waitlist system for two key reasons. First, it operates on a queue-based system, ensuring fairness.
Returning to the G99 example, if two separate groups’ itineraries collectively cover the train’s full route, any subsequent waitlist requests will be placed behind them. A third request will only be fulfilled when another group’s travel plans align with the remaining available segments.
Secondly, waitlist requests serve as vital data points for the railway, informing decisions about train scheduling and capacity allocation. For example, if a train initially configured with 8 carriages (approximately 500 seats) sees waitlist requests and existing bookings exceeding 700, the railway can augment the train to 16 carriages, increasing the capacity to 1000 seats.
The net effect is significant: timely and accurate waitlist submissions provide crucial insights into passenger demand, enabling the railway to optimize operations and boost the probability of securing a ticket.
What are your thoughts on this analysis?
Original article, Author: Tobias. If you wish to reprint this article, please indicate the source:https://aicnbc.com/5167.html
