Debt-to-GDP Ratio

The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, triggering concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. This figure represents roughly 1.27 times the projected 2024 GDP, equating to over $108,000 per American. The debt is accumulating at an accelerating pace, prompting warnings from fiscal watchdogs like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Projections suggest the debt could reach $37.8 trillion by the end of 2025 and potentially exceed $50 trillion by 2030, dependent on future economic data and policy decisions.

Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating highlights surging debt surpassing 120% of GDP and interest costs outpacing global peers. The Treasury faces unsustainable fiscal trajectories as $2 trillion annual deficits persist above 6% GDP. Trade tensions risk self-fulfilling economic deceleration while tax cuts modeled by Yale Budget Lab could balloon debt by $3.4-$5 trillion by 2025, pushing debt-to-GDP ratios past 200%. Treasury Secretary Bessent warns of potential credit collapse without action, echoing prior downgrades by S&P (2011) and Fitch (2024) amid political resistance to market warnings.