Fiscal Metrics

Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating highlights surging debt surpassing 120% of GDP and interest costs outpacing global peers. The Treasury faces unsustainable fiscal trajectories as $2 trillion annual deficits persist above 6% GDP. Trade tensions risk self-fulfilling economic deceleration while tax cuts modeled by Yale Budget Lab could balloon debt by $3.4-$5 trillion by 2025, pushing debt-to-GDP ratios past 200%. Treasury Secretary Bessent warns of potential credit collapse without action, echoing prior downgrades by S&P (2011) and Fitch (2024) amid political resistance to market warnings.