Trade War

Five key developments are summarized: escalating US-China trade tensions with a potential cooking oil embargo; the financial sector preparing for earnings season; the ongoing government shutdown’s impact, including Treasury Department layoffs and airport disruptions; Boeing’s anticipated strongest delivery numbers since 2018; and the DOJ’s seizure of $15 billion in Bitcoin linked to a “pig butchering” scam, representing its largest forfeiture action. Additionally, JPMorgan survey results reveal differing economic perceptions based on income.

The U.S. imposed tariffs up to 39% on Swiss goods, a move considered a “catastrophic blow” by Swissmem. The tariffs, second highest after Syria, sent Swiss “concept stocks” tumbling, with Roche, UBS, and watch group shares declining. The U.S. is a key export market for Switzerland, and the country had anticipated lower tariffs similar to those with the EU. Experts predict a negative impact on Swiss GDP, the franc, and export-reliant companies. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on August 7th, but adjustments are still possible.

The U.S. adjusted small parcel duty rules, imposing a 54% tariff on Chinese shipments under $800 while retaining $100 duty exemptions, following initial proposed 120% supertariffs. Platforms like Temu and Shein rapidly adapted fulfillment strategies—phasing out full-management models, expanding semi-management frameworks, and deploying Y2 direct-ship systems—to mitigate compliance challenges. Merchants grapple with eroded margins and logistical pressures amid policy volatility, yet industry analysts suggest evolving trade dynamics may drive supply chain innovation, separating resilient operators from those relying on regulatory loopholes as cross-border e-commerce enters a new competitive phase.