5 Things to Know Before Friday’s Market Open

Happy Friday. The U.S. has initiated an additional 60 trade investigations, signaling the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to explore avenues for replacing recently rescinded tariffs. These new probes specifically target exploitative labor practices within international trade.

Stock futures are trending upward this morning, recovering from a negative trading session. Here are five critical insights for investors as the trading day commences:

## Strait Talk

Oil prices experienced a surge, while equity markets retreated yesterday, following statements from Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, suggesting the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed to “pressure the enemy.” Brent crude futures climbed an impressive 9.22% to close above $100 per barrel, marking the first time the commodity has breached this psychological threshold since 2022.

Here’s a breakdown of the key developments:

* U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated in an interview that the U.S. Navy is “not ready” to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz at this precise moment, though he suggested it would happen “relatively soon.”
* Subsequently, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in an interview that the U.S. Navy would provide escorts “as soon as militarily possible,” potentially in conjunction with an international coalition.
* Bessent also announced via social media that the U.S. would permit a temporary relaxation on purchases of Russian oil already en route, a move designed to ease immediate market pressures.
* The U.S. Central Command confirmed that four crew members of a refueling aircraft tragically lost their lives yesterday when their plane crashed in western Iraq. The command clarified that the incident was not attributed to hostile or friendly fire.
* The rally in oil prices continued to weigh heavily on stock markets on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 700 points, closing below the 47,000 mark for the first time this year. All three major U.S. stock indices are currently on pace to finish the week in negative territory.

## Cutting It Close

Investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts this year is rapidly diminishing, exacerbated by the escalating geopolitical tensions and their inflationary implications. Prior to the recent conflict, traders had anticipated a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, followed by another in September, and possibly a third before the year’s end. However, current market sentiment, as reflected by CME Group’s FedWatch tool, suggests traders are now pricing in only a single rate cut in December. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next interest rate decision on March 18th, and markets are widely expecting no change.

Market participants will gain further insight into inflationary trends with the release of January’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists forecast that this key inflation gauge, closely watched by the Fed, will show a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.9% year-over-year rise in headline PCE.

## C-Suite Shakeup

Shares of Adobe are experiencing a significant decline in premarket trading, down over 7%, following the software giant’s announcement yesterday that CEO Shantanu Narayen will step down once a successor is appointed. This leadership transition was disclosed alongside Adobe’s first-quarter financial results, which surpassed analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings. The company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in revenue and provided stronger-than-anticipated guidance for the current quarter.

Narayen’s departure is not the only prominent executive change in the tech sector. Rajesh Jha, Microsoft’s top executive overseeing the Office suite of products, is also set to retire this summer after an impactful 35-year tenure with the company.

## Deal or No Deal

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman engaged in discussions with several lawmakers on Capitol Hill yesterday, two weeks after the artificial intelligence leader finalized a strategic agreement with the Department of Defense. Senator Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., conveyed that he presented Altman with “serious questions” regarding OpenAI’s Pentagon contract and the broader implications of artificial intelligence in warfare. Kelly emphasized the critical need for robust ethical guardrails and unwavering adherence to constitutional principles.

Meanwhile, the Senate advanced the most significant housing affordability legislation in three decades. However, the bill faces considerable headwinds in the House of Representatives, where Republican leadership has indicated reluctance to consider the Senate’s version.

## Ahead in the Count

The New York Yankees continue to hold the title of baseball’s most valuable franchise, according to CNBC’s Official MLB Team Valuations for 2026. Valued at $9 billion, the Yankees are the tenth sports franchise overall and the sole Major League Baseball entity to achieve this valuation milestone.

Despite this, the Los Angeles Dodgers, bolstered by two consecutive World Series championships and the star power of Shohei Ohtani, are steadily narrowing the gap. Sources indicate that the Dodgers generated $950 million in revenue last season, a substantial $200 million more than the Yankees. The Dodgers’ current valuation stands at an impressive $8 billion.

## The Daily Dividend

Here’s a recap of notable news and developments from the week:

* The U.S. Commerce Department announced that the trade deficit narrowed to $67.4 billion in January, a slight improvement from the previous month, reflecting both increased exports and decreased imports.
* In economic data, initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 210,000, indicating a resilient labor market despite ongoing economic uncertainties.
* On the corporate front, major retailers are gearing up for their first-quarter earnings reports, with investors closely watching for signs of consumer spending trends and inventory management strategies.
* The ongoing debate surrounding artificial intelligence regulation continued, with lawmakers and industry leaders exploring frameworks for responsible development and deployment.

*This report was compiled with contributions from CNBC’s team of reporters and editors.*