Primerica Household Budget Index™: Middle-Income Purchasing Power Stable in September

10/31/2025 – 12:00 AM

DULUTH, Ga. – Primerica’s latest Household Budget Index (HBI), a key economic indicator tracking the impact of inflation and wage trends on middle-income families’ ability to afford essential goods and services, registered at 100.4% in September. This reflects a 0.2% increase month-over-month and a 0.6% rise compared to the previous year, signaling continued pressure on household budgets.

The broader Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation across a wide range of goods and services for all U.S. households, showed a 3.0% increase in September compared to last year, marking the highest level since June 2024. However, when the CPI is adjusted to more specifically reflect the spending patterns of middle-income families, inflation rises to 3.4% year-over-year. This suggests that middle-income households are experiencing inflationary pressures at a higher rate than the general population.

A deeper dive into the HBI reveals that the cost of essential items – including food, utilities, gas, auto insurance, and healthcare – has risen by 3.2% year-over-year for middle-income Americans. This underscores the significant impact of rising costs in these key areas on household finances.

Economists note that the disparity between the general CPI and the HBI highlights the challenge of applying a one-size-fits-all inflation metric to diverse economic realities. The HBI aims to provide a more nuanced understanding of the economic pressures faced by middle-income households, who represent a significant portion of consumer spending and overall economic activity.

The HBI methodology considers data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, offering a comprehensive view of the factors impacting middle-income purchasing power. The index tracks the cost of necessities, including food, gas, auto insurance, utilities, and healthcare, and earned income, to highlight differences in inflation and wage growth.

The ongoing government shutdown, which began in October 2025, has introduced some uncertainty in the data collection process. While Primerica was able to generate September HBI data with estimated values for Census data, continued disruptions may impact the availability of future HBI releases. Investors and economists will be closely monitoring the situation for potential impacts on the accuracy and timeliness of economic data.

Primerica’s HBI data uses January 2019 as its baseline, with a value of 100%. Prior HBI values may be modified to reflect revisions in CPI data and releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Primerica, Inc., a financial services provider focused on middle-income families in North America, utilizes the HBI data to provide insights into the economic challenges facing its client base. The company offers a range of financial products and services, including term life insurance and investment products.