Apple to Outship Samsung in iPhones for First Time in 14 Years

According to a new report by Counterpoint Research, Apple is poised to overtake Samsung as the world’s leading smartphone vendor in 2025, a milestone not seen in 14 years.

Counterpoint forecasts Apple to ship approximately 243 million iPhone units this year, surpassing Samsung’s estimated 235 million. This would translate to a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market for Apple, compared to Samsung’s 18.7%. It’s important to note that shipment numbers represent devices vendors send to retail channels, not necessarily direct sales figures, but they serve as a strong indicator of market demand and manufacturer expectations.

The momentum behind Apple’s projected success is largely attributed to the iPhone 17 series, launched in September, which analysts describe as having enjoyed a “bumper” holiday sales season. Early sales data from the U.S. showed a 12% increase in iPhone 17 series sales (including the iPhone Air) during the initial four weeks post-launch compared to the iPhone 16 series (excluding the 16e). In China, a pivotal market for Apple, the iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor by an impressive 18% during the same period.

“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” noted Yang Wang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research. This refresh cycle, coupled with the iPhone 17’s features and appeal, is creating a potent demand surge for Apple.

Samsung, on the other hand, faces increasing competition in the crucial low-to-mid tier smartphone segments, primarily from Chinese manufacturers. This competitive pressure could hinder Samsung’s ability to regain the top spot in the global market in the near term.

Counterpoint Research is forecasting a continued reign for Apple in the global smartphone market through 2029. The firm cites several factors contributing to this sustained dominance.

One key element is the thriving second-hand iPhone market. Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, a staggering 358 million used iPhones were reportedly sold. This indicates a large, loyal user base already invested in the iOS ecosystem. “These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters,” Counterpoint Research explained.

Furthermore, Apple benefited from a less severe impact from trade tariffs than initially anticipated. This stability aided Apple’s supply chain and facilitated growth in key regions, including emerging markets. A weaker U.S. dollar and a “resilient economic outlook” also played a role in boosting consumer confidence and spending power, further benefiting Apple.

“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang concluded.

Looking ahead, Apple is expected to expand its product line with the introduction of an entry-level iPhone 17e next year, and potentially a foldable smartphone in the longer term. Counterpoint also anticipates that improvements to Apple’s virtual assistant Siri, as well as a “major iPhone design revamp” in 2027, will solidify Apple’s leadership position.

“By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing “e” series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets, and to strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the overall market,” Counterpoint stated.

The combination of a loyal customer base, the appeal of the iOS ecosystem, and the sheer number of older iPhones awaiting upgrades, suggests that Apple is well placed to maintain its leading position in the smartphone market for the foreseeable future.