A Tough, Historically Unusual November for U.S. Stocks

The U.S. stock market was closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and will resume trading on Friday, ending the day at 1 p.m. ET. With roughly three hours of session time left in November, the major U.S. indices are poised to finish the month in negative territory, according to internal calculations.

At Wednesday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 0.4 % month‑to‑date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.29 % over the same period, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15 %, lagging its peers as technology stocks continued to stumble.

Unless Friday’s truncated session delivers an outsized rally—an outcome that could raise questions about market depth—the indices are on track to break the six‑month winning streak that has lifted the S&P 500 and Dow, and the seven‑month rally that has carried the Nasdaq.

Historically, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 1.8 % each November since 1950, and it typically enjoys a 1.6 % gain in the year following a presidential election, per the Stock Trader’s Almanac. This November, however, the market is deviating sharply from those norms, suggesting that traditional seasonal patterns may be losing relevance in an increasingly data‑driven, geopolitically uncertain environment.

Key Market Signals

U.S. futures were largely flat on Thursday night. European markets saw the Stoxx 600 inch up 0.14 % after earlier losses, indicating modest resilience overseas.

Alibaba unveiled its Quark AI Glasses, offering two price points—1,899 yuan ($268) and 3,799 yuan—well below Meta’s $799 Ray‑Ban Display glasses. The move underscores Alibaba’s aggressive push into the consumer AI segment, a space that could become a new revenue engine as hardware adoption accelerates.

Apple has filed a legal challenge against the Competition Commission of India, which is investigating the company’s in‑app purchase policies. A potential fine could be tied to Apple’s global turnover, raising the prospect of a penalty in the tens of billions of dollars—a development that could reshape App Store governance and pricing models worldwide.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is ready for “serious” peace talks, noting that the U.S.–led framework could serve as a foundation for future agreements. While the geopolitical implications are beyond the scope of market numbers, any de‑escalation could eventually affect energy prices and risk sentiment.

Bank of America analysts project that the S&P 500 will likely post only a single‑digit percentage gain in 2026, a slowdown driven by diminishing upside from key growth drivers such as technology spending and consumer discretionary resilience.

Europe’s methodical approach to artificial intelligence is shaping a distinct competitive edge. While the continent is unlikely to dominate the construction of large‑scale AI hyperscaler facilities—an arena already dominated by U.S. and Chinese cloud providers—it is positioning itself as a hub for specialized, latency‑critical AI workloads, edge computing, and secure, sovereign data solutions.

According to senior fund manager Seb Dooley, “The more difficult it is to replicate a capability, the greater its long‑term value.” Europe’s regulatory framework, data‑privacy standards, and focus on interoperable cloud services could attract enterprises seeking stable, compliant AI infrastructure, potentially translating into higher margins for European cloud operators.

At the same time, the sector faces a tightening regulatory environment. The European Union’s AI Act is set to impose rigorous standards on high‑risk AI applications, which may increase compliance costs for developers but also create market opportunities for firms that can certify their models quickly.

In the United States, the Apple‑India antitrust dispute highlights a broader trend: governments worldwide are scrutinizing the dominance of platform ecosystems. A large fine could force Apple to redesign its App Store policies, potentially opening the door for alternative payment systems and improving margins for app developers—an outcome that could ripple through global digital economies.

Alibaba’s AI glasses illustrate the convergence of hardware and AI software in China’s domestic market. By pricing the devices competitively against Western rivals, Alibaba aims to capture early adopters and integrate its cloud AI services, creating a feedback loop that fuels both device sales and cloud consumption.

Collectively, these developments suggest that the technology sector’s growth in the coming year will be shaped less by raw revenue expansion and more by regulatory adaptation, strategic pricing, and the ability to secure niche, high‑value use cases.