Rubrik shares surged 22% on Friday after the data‑management firm posted a blowout fiscal third‑quarter and raised its full‑year outlook.
The cloud‑based backup and recovery company, which went public in April 2024, recorded its second‑best trading day on record.
Revenue jumped 48% year‑over‑year to $350 million, beating LSEG’s consensus estimate of $320 million. Adjusted earnings came in at $0.10 per share, versus analysts’ expectation of a $0.17 loss.
Guidance for the current fiscal year was also lifted, with revenue now projected between $1.28 billion and $1.282 billion, up from the prior range topping $1.237 billion.
CEO Bipul Sinha told CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime that the company’s strength in cyber‑resilience and its recent expansion into safeguarding artificial‑intelligence agents are fueling the rapid growth.
“Enterprises are deploying AI agents at scale, but they lack visibility into what those agents are doing,” Sinha said. “Are they hallucinating? Do they have guardrails? And if they make a mistake, can we roll it back?”
For the three months ended Oct. 31, Rubrik posted a net loss of $63.83 million, or $0.32 per share, a significant improvement from the $130.91 million loss ($0.71 per share) recorded a year earlier.
During Thursday’s earnings call, Sinha highlighted that Rubrik is winning business by displacing legacy vendors. The firm secured contracts with a major Asian bank and a Fortune 250 professional‑services company, citing the surge in AI‑driven cyber threats as a critical factor.
“AI is a double‑edged sword: attackers are leveraging it to automate and amplify attacks,” Sinha explained. “We view this as the early stage of a massive market, and we expect to sustain a high‑velocity growth trajectory.”
Strategic Context and Market Outlook
Rubrik operates in the rapidly expanding data‑protection market, which IDC forecasts will exceed $30 billion by 2027, driven by hybrid‑cloud adoption and stricter data‑privacy regulations. The company’s platform integrates backup, ransomware recovery, and immutable storage—features increasingly demanded by enterprises seeking to harden their AI workloads.
From a competitive standpoint, Rubrik faces incumbents such as Veeam, CommVault, and emerging pure‑play cloud providers like Snowflake and Databricks, which are adding data‑governance capabilities. Rubrik’s differentiation lies in its API‑first architecture and “Zero‑trust” data fabric, enabling seamless policy enforcement across multi‑cloud environments.
Financially, the boosted guidance implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 38% for FY2026, well above the software‑as‑a‑service (SaaS) sector average of 22%. Assuming a forward‑looking price‑to‑sales multiple of 8×—in line with high‑growth SaaS peers—the implied market capitalization would be around $10 billion, suggesting the current stock price may still be undervalued relative to its growth narrative.
Key risks include the pace of AI adoption, potential macro‑economic headwinds that could delay enterprise spending, and the threat of larger cloud players bundling data‑protection services into broader suites. Nonetheless, Rubrik’s expanding partner ecosystem, including strategic alliances with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, provides a runway for cross‑sell opportunities.
Conclusion
Rubrik’s robust Q3 performance, aggressive revenue outlook, and strategic focus on AI‑centric cyber resilience position it as a compelling player in the data‑protection arena. Investors will be watching the company’s ability to convert its early‑stage market momentum into sustainable, profitable growth over the next 12‑18 months.
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