A land grab is underway in the U.S. for perpetual futures, a high-stakes segment of the crypto trading world, with prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly vying for a piece of this burgeoning market. Perpetual futures, colloquially known as “perps,” are futures contracts with no expiration dates. Their prevalence has surged dramatically, particularly since a shift in the regulatory landscape that has allowed for their introduction to the U.S. market, a move that could significantly alter the trading of real-world events and challenge established financial platforms.
Historically, perps, which can offer leverage up to 100x, were largely absent from the U.S. trading scene. This absence was a key factor in the dominance of offshore exchanges like Binance and the now-defunct FTX. However, the tide is turning. Perps now represent over 70% of the trading volume on centralized crypto exchanges, according to CoinGecko. In 2025 alone, perps trading volume reached a nominal $61.7 trillion, a substantial 29% increase from the previous year. This dwarfs the spot crypto trading volume, which stood at $18.6 trillion in 2025, a more modest 9% rise.
The convergence of prediction markets and leveraged trading presents a fascinating potential evolution in how Americans engage with financial markets tied to real-world occurrences. This expansion could pit platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket directly against established players such as Robinhood and Coinbase. It also raises questions among skeptics about whether the integration of prediction markets with highly leveraged products will exacerbate market volatility and further intertwine the cryptocurrency space with mainstream finance.
However, for the incumbent crypto platforms, analysts largely downplay the immediate threat. Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street, views this as a “natural product extension” for existing customers of prediction markets. He posits that it would be challenging to entice users of established platforms like Coinbase, Binance, or Robinhood to switch entirely.
Dan Dolev of Mizuho suggests that the move by prediction markets is more of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk rather than an aggressive offensive play. He anticipates that platforms like Robinhood will eventually develop their own in-house capabilities for such offerings.
Robinhood, for instance, already has a foothold. Last year, it launched its Prediction Markets hub in partnership with Kalshi, which rapidly became its fastest-growing product line by revenue. The platform reported 11 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in 2025. Coinbase followed suit, launching its partnership with Kalshi this January. Dolev highlights a significant overlap in user bases between prediction and crypto markets, deeming it a “home run idea” for Robinhood’s entry into the space. Furthermore, leading entities like Crypto.com, Coinbase, and Robinhood are all members of the newly formed Coalition for Prediction Markets, indicating a coordinated effort to shape this evolving landscape.
**The U.S. Push to Onshore Perpetual Futures**
The potential increase in perps trading within the U.S. could introduce greater volatility to certain assets. Lau explains that the inherent leverage and risk associated with these contracts historically prevented their trading in the U.S.
Perpetual futures traded offshore often employ an auto-deleveraging system. This mechanism automatically liquidates trader positions when the market moves against them, which can trigger significant liquidation cascades and lead to sharp single-day price drops in cryptocurrencies. This risk factor is likely why U.S. regulators have been hesitant to permit domestic trading of these contracts.
The success of these planned expansions hinges on the intricate structuring of the products themselves—how contracts are priced, settled, margined, and incentivized for traders. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has signaled its intent to facilitate the onshore trading of “true perpetual derivatives.” CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated earlier this year that under his leadership, the commission aims to utilize its regulatory tools to bring perpetual and other novel derivative products into the U.S. market, allowing them to thrive in both centralized and decentralized environments, provided appropriate safeguards are in place.
Simultaneously, prediction markets are facing heightened scrutiny due to recent incidents involving alleged insider trading and manipulation of underlying data. Reports of bettors profiting from non-public events or accused of tampering with real-world inputs, such as weather sensors, have raised red flags. Introducing highly leveraged crypto products into this mix is likely to invite even more intense regulatory oversight, potentially hindering the growth of these ventures before they can achieve significant scale.
However, if successful, a crucial question emerges: Will these contracts, popularized within the crypto sphere, expand into other asset classes? Lau suggests that if the CFTC and U.S. operators can effectively prevent the use of auto-deleveraging in perps trading, the extension to other markets becomes a logical progression. He posits that while currently a “crypto thing,” it wouldn’t be surprising to see efforts to push this concept into broader markets like the S&P 500, energy commodities, or even individual stocks like Apple, which would indeed make the phenomenon significantly more interesting.
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