A wave of imminent initial public offerings from tech titans could signal a peak in the current market, strategists are suggesting, drawing parallels to the exuberance of the late 1990s dot-com bubble.
SpaceX’s highly anticipated IPO, officially confirmed in a regulatory filing on Thursday and slated for June 12, is poised to become the largest public debut in history. Elon Musk’s aerospace and space exploration company is targeting a colossal valuation of $1.75 trillion on the Nasdaq exchange. Adding to the buzz, both OpenAI and Anthropic have also announced their intentions to pursue public offerings later this year, further intensifying investor interest in the burgeoning AI and space sectors.
However, a crucial caveat looms: none of these companies have yet achieved consistent annual profitability. While Anthropic is reportedly on track to post its first-ever profitable quarter in its upcoming earnings report, a comprehensive understanding of their business models remains elusive for many market observers. This opacity has led some analysts to advise a degree of caution for investors considering buying in at the IPO stage.
“I see it as a market top,” John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zacks, commented on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe. “Everybody knows the top is pretty close to being around, and usually, it is advertised by these giant IPOs. Back in 1999, we saw the same kind of thing where people were just rushing to get these IPOs out.”
**A Sky-High Gamble?**
SpaceX’s financial disclosures reveal a company still heavily investing in its ambitious future. The company reported a net loss of $4.28 billion in its latest quarter, following a $4.94 billion loss in 2025. The primary driver of revenue is its Starlink satellite internet service, which generated $3.26 billion in the most recent quarter, accounting for a significant 69% of the total.
However, the core space operations division recorded an operating loss of $619 million, while its nascent artificial intelligence unit incurred a substantial $2.5 billion loss. This highlights that, at present, connectivity is the sole profitable segment of SpaceX’s sprawling enterprise.
Crucially, in its S-1 filing, SpaceX acknowledged, “we have a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future.” A significant portion of the company’s valuation appears to hinge on the successful development of “novel and untested” technologies. SpaceX anticipates “incurring significant capital expenditures over a period of years” before its AI products and services can generate substantial profits, as outlined in the regulatory document.
Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, noted the inherent opacity surrounding SpaceX’s financials due to its private company status, with Elon Musk holding a commanding 85% of voting rights. He flagged the eye-watering valuation as a potential risk. “A $1.75 trillion valuation would put SpaceX on 67 times sales, three times as much as Nvidia’s rating based on its past financial year and latest share price,” he elaborated. “It implies SpaceX’s valuation could be richer than a plate of dauphinoise potatoes.”
SpaceX views OpenAI as a formidable competitor in the race to lead in artificial intelligence, with Sam Altman’s company also aiming for a public listing this year. However, like SpaceX, OpenAI has yet to demonstrate consistent profitability, prompting concerns among some investors about the potential for broader market repercussions should the company continue on this path.
“If OpenAI and Anthropic can’t make money, this whole thing falls apart,” William de Gale, portfolio manager at BlueBox Asset Management, told CNBC. “You could get OpenAI deciding to IPO itself in a couple of months, giving us the information that we realize it’s never going to make money, and that could be the end as well. I’m not saying that is the case, but that’s another possible, much quicker route to a ceiling on this growth.”
Deutsche Bank also raised concerns regarding transparency in a note published on Thursday. “It has yet to be seen how public markets will value OpenAI and its peers once they open up their financial statements to scrutiny and explain the still little-understood economics of their business models,” wrote Adrian Cox, a thematic research strategist at Deutsche Bank.
The market will be closely watching how these pioneering companies navigate the complexities of public ownership and whether their ambitious technological ventures can translate into sustainable financial success, or if the current investor fervor will indeed signal a market inflection point.
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