The frenzy surrounding the potential initial public offerings (IPOs) of AI giants SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI has reached a fever pitch this week, raising a critical question for investors: are these astronomical valuations justified by market realities?
SpaceX set a blistering pace with its IPO priced at $135 per share, catapulting its valuation to a record $1.77 trillion. Now, the spotlight turns to Anthropic and OpenAI, two leading artificial intelligence research labs, as they contemplate their own public market debuts.
Anthropic, in particular, is making significant strides in the race to become the preeminent AI lab. The company, which has experienced substantial momentum in recent months, recently achieved a valuation of $965 billion and reported a revenue run rate of $47 billion. Its confidential filing of an IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) marks a pivotal moment, following a high-profile dispute with the U.S. Department of Defense earlier this year. This move, alongside OpenAI’s anticipated IPO, will serve as a crucial test of investor appetite for pure-play frontier AI companies—a category that has largely operated outside the scrutinizing gaze of public markets.
**The Crucial Metric: Gross Margin**
“Anthropic filing a confidential S-1 starts the clock on what will be the most scrutinized public offering in tech history,” noted Harrison Rolfes, an analyst at PitchBook. However, he stressed that the ultimate determinant of success will not be the lofty valuation or revenue figures, but rather the company’s gross margin. This metric, representing the revenue remaining after deducting the substantial costs associated with providing AI services, remains opaque to the public. “No one outside Anthropic has ever seen [gross margin], and it will either validate or collapse the entire narrative the private markets have been pricing for three years,” Rolfes explained.
Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, acknowledges Anthropic’s unprecedented growth and its apparent lead in the frontier AI model market. However, he cautions that intense competition from well-funded rivals like Google, Meta, OpenAI, and SpaceX could challenge this dominance. Luria also pointed out that much of Anthropic’s current usage stems from trials and experimentation, a trend that may not be sustainable in the long term.
**Broader Implications for the Tech Landscape**
The implications of Anthropic’s IPO filing extend far beyond the company itself. “That disclosure will not only reprice private competitors,” stated Eric Goodness, VP analyst at Gartner, “but also provides insight to every enterprise attempting to value and price the future cost of intelligence in their company.”
Rolfes anticipates that the combined IPOs of Anthropic and SpaceX, targeting a staggering $1.77 trillion valuation, could represent the largest concentration of capital ever brought to market simultaneously. “The 2026 window either becomes the most consequential IPO cycle since the dot-com era or the most expensive lesson in narrative-versus-fundamentals that public markets have ever taught.”
**In Other Tech News:**
* The European Commission has proposed a suite of measures to bolster its domestic chip, AI, and cloud computing sectors, aiming to enhance technological sovereignty amidst significant reliance on U.S. and Chinese products and services.
* Uber is reportedly cutting 23% of its workforce in its people division as it seeks to streamline operations under new president Jill Hazelbaker.
* Elon Musk’s SpaceX has set its IPO price at $135 per share, targeting a valuation of $1.77 trillion, according to a filing with the SEC.
* Anthropic announced that an additional 150 partners will gain access to Mythos, its advanced AI model recognized for its proficiency in identifying software vulnerabilities.
* Fintech startup Ramp is experiencing a surge in business as companies increasingly turn to its software to manage their AI expenditures. The company is now valued at $44 billion.
**Stock Focus: Broadcom’s AI Chip Woes**
Broadcom’s stock experienced a significant downturn on Thursday following the release of its second-quarter earnings report. Investors had anticipated a more robust AI forecast from the company, which designs and manufactures customized AI chips for major technology firms. The disappointing outlook for its AI segment contributed to a broader sell-off in the semiconductor sector, as investors reassessed their exposure to chipmaker equities. The company’s stock charts illustrate a sharp decline in recent trading sessions.
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