Valuation

.Nvidia received U.S. approval to export its second‑tier H200 GPUs to vetted Chinese customers for a 25 % treasury royalty, a move announced by President Trump. The H200, an upgraded version of the throttled H20, could add $25‑30 billion in revenue and lift EPS by $0.60‑$0.70, yielding a PEG below 1.0 and a forward P/E around 24×. Though Wall Street’s reaction was muted, analysts expect Chinese adoption to narrow the AI compute gap and boost Nvidia’s earnings despite lingering geopolitical risks.

SpaceX is planning a secondary share sale that could lift its valuation to about $800 billion, with a possible IPO by the end of next year. The offering would likely combine the lucrative Starlink broadband network—projected to earn $10 billion annually by 2028—with its core launch services, creating a “two‑for‑one” investment. Analysts cite the company’s cost‑effective Falcon 9, upcoming fully reusable Starship, and strong government and commercial contracts as drivers, while noting competition from Blue Origin and regulatory risks for its LEO constellation.

Elon Musk’s AI startup, xAI, is nearing a $15 billion funding round at a $230 billion pre-money valuation. This follows earlier reports of a $15 billion raise that Musk initially denied. A large portion of the funds will be used to acquire GPUs for training large language models. The deal highlights the strong investor interest in AI, mirroring substantial funding rounds and valuations for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. xAI’s Grok chatbot and Grokipedia have also drawn attention, alongside xAI’s merger with X.

Recent equity market pullback, especially in AI stocks, has sparked valuation and contagion concerns. Warnings about a potential market drawdown are increasing. BOE Governor Bailey cautioned about an AI bubble and speculative risks. Despite this, data center construction remains strong, and some see buying opportunities in tech. However, SoftBank’s losses and Michael Burry’s short positions signal waning AI appetite. Strategists suggest caution on US equities, favoring emerging markets benefiting from AI.

Jim Cramer of CNBC argues that Wall Street’s focus on the valuations of select high-growth tech stocks, especially in AI, obscures broader market opportunities. He cites Palantir’s recent decline despite strong earnings as an example of investors overly targeting speculative stocks due to market expensiveness concerns. Cramer suggests overlooking the potential of other stocks with reasonable valuations is a mistake, and urges investors to examine individual company fundamentals and growth prospects instead of dismissing entire sectors. He believes Palantir’s situation might just be a need for the stock to “cool off.”

Cybersecurity startup Armis, specializing in connected device security, raised $435 million, valuing the company at $6.1 billion. Led by Goldman Sachs Alternatives, the funding will fuel growth and address the increasing demand for IoT, OT, and medical device security. Armis’ platform helps organizations discover, secure, and manage connected devices, providing threat detection and mitigation. CEO Yevgeny Dibrov sees Goldman Sachs as an ideal partner for a future IPO, targeted for late 2026 or early 2027, with a near-term goal of reaching $1 billion in ARR.

Navan, formerly TripActions, a corporate travel and expense management platform, went public on Nasdaq (NAVN) with a $6.2 billion valuation following a $923 million IPO. Shares dipped 20% despite pricing at $25, the midpoint of its range, which was lower than its $9.2 billion 2022 private valuation. Navan distinguishes itself with AI integration and a focus on traveler experience, boasting clients like Geico and OpenAI. It reported strong revenue growth but also a recent quarterly net loss, making profitability a key focus.

The article explores the debate on whether the current surge in AI investment constitutes a bubble, drawing parallels to the dot-com era and the 2008 financial crisis. While giants pour billions into AI infrastructure, some experts argue it’s a legitimate technological shift, while others point to inflated valuations and unsustainable spending. Leading figures like Anneka Treon, Jared Bernstein, and Pat Gelsinger offer contrasting views on the financial health and future of the AI market, highlighting both opportunities and risks.

OpenAI completed a $6.6 billion secondary share sale, valuing the company at $500 billion, a record for an AI firm. The sale, involving Thrive Capital, SoftBank, and others, allowed current and former employees to liquidate equity. While OpenAI authorized a larger sale, less than anticipated shares changed hands, seen as a sign of investor confidence. This follows a previous $1.5 billion deal and positions OpenAI as the most valuable private company, surpassing SpaceX. The sale aids employee retention amidst intense AI talent competition.

Checkout.com, a fintech firm, is offering employees a share buyback program based on a $12 billion internal valuation, a decrease from its $40 billion valuation in 2022. This allows employees to monetize equity amidst a challenging IPO market. The company, which competes with Stripe and Adyen, facilitates billions in transactions for clients like Coinbase and H&M. Checkout.com projects 30% revenue growth and $300 billion in payment volume, focusing on AI and agentic commerce. This follows similar moves by Stripe and Revolut, providing liquidity in a volatile market.