How Long Will Software-Defined Vehicles Last?

Americans are extending the lifespan of their vehicles, with the average age of a U.S. car now standing at 12.8 years, according to Mobility Global. However, a growing concern among industry analysts and forecasters is the potential for highly complex software-defined vehicles to age more akin to rapidly obsolescent smartphones than traditional automobiles.

These advanced vehicles leverage sophisticated computing power and intricate software to manage functions previously handled by mechanical components or simpler technologies. Crucially, they are designed to receive over-the-air (OTA) software updates, and their constant connectivity allows automakers to remotely diagnose issues, implement fixes, and even introduce new features throughout the vehicle’s lifecycle.

“A software-defined vehicle is truly a vehicle that doesn’t become stale over time. It’s a vehicle that continues to improve through over-the-air updates,” explained Wassym Bensaid, Chief Software Officer at Rivian. “What we like to say at Rivian is that the least capable Rivian you will ever receive from us is on the day of purchase, and it will subsequently get better and better over time.”

The proliferation of these technology-intensive vehicles carries significant implications across the automotive ecosystem. While the average U.S. vehicle represents a substantial investment, often approaching $50,000, the potential for certain features to become inaccessible due to obsolete hardware or discontinued product support raises questions about long-term value and repairability. The rapidly evolving and often proprietary nature of these technologies challenges the traditional models of vehicle maintenance and longevity.

“Frankly, we don’t have a clear understanding of how long these vehicles will remain fully functional,” stated Sam Fiorani, Senior Vice President of Vehicle Forecasting at AutoForecastSolutions. “We’re already encountering instances where hardware is struggling to keep pace with new software demands.”

The automotive industry has encountered similar technological hurdles in the past, albeit with less complex systems.

In 2022, AT&T became the first major telecommunications provider to shut down its 3G wireless network. This decision rendered millions of vehicles from various manufacturers unable to access critical features such as emergency response services, certain navigation functions, and infotainment options. While the vehicles remained mechanically operational, these once-integrated perks were lost, impacting the ownership experience.

Tesla, in 2016, announced that all vehicles then in production were equipped with the necessary hardware for full self-driving (FSD) capabilities, a claim later reaffirmed by CEO Elon Musk in 2019 concerning the then-new Hardware 3 computer. However, in April of this year, Musk indicated that Hardware 3 vehicles would require upgraded computers and cameras to achieve “unsupervised” FSD. Tesla offered qualifying customers either a hardware upgrade or a discounted trade-in option.

Rivian’s Bensaid highlighted the company’s strategy of building in substantial hardware capability—termed “headroom”—designed to accommodate approximately seven to ten years of software upgrades. “There’s a clear distinction between feature updates, which introduce new functionalities post-launch and post-purchase, and essential safety or security updates,” he elaborated. “Our commitment to our owners is that safety and security updates will be supported by Rivian indefinitely, ensuring the vehicle remains fully functional and secure for its entire ownership duration.”

Sam Abuelsamid, Vice President of Market Research at Telemetry, anticipates that it will become increasingly common for features to receive updates for a period before becoming incompatible as software capabilities outpace hardware limitations. However, automakers are likely to continue providing a baseline level of support, particularly for critical safety and security patches and bug fixes. “From a product liability and safety standpoint, they have a strong incentive to address these issues as comprehensively as possible,” he noted.

However, the ongoing cost of software maintenance presents a financial challenge, while hardware components are susceptible to wear and tear, necessitating eventual replacement. The discontinuation of 3G services in 2022 raised significant questions about potential depreciation in vehicle resale values.

Fiorani expressed concern regarding the long-term availability of affordable used vehicles, given the growing reliance on pre-owned cars in the current market. Alex Yurchenko, Vice President of Data Insights at J.D. Power, suggests that software-defined vehicles are unlikely to fundamentally alter the used car market’s dynamics. Nevertheless, he foresees a potential market bifurcation: vehicles with continuous over-the-air support that hold their value better, versus those without. Manufacturer-certified pre-owned programs could gain prominence as consumers seek the assurance and continued functionality these programs offer. “Valuation remains a complex challenge,” Yurchenko observed. “There’s a lack of widely accepted standards for assessing software-enabled features, and buyers may harbor concerns about advanced driver-assistance system calibration, feature availability, data privacy, and the long-term viability of subscriptions or connected services.”

For enthusiasts and collectors of classic cars, the ascendance of software-defined vehicles prompts contemplation about the future of automotive culture. Fiorani questions how these complex vehicles will be maintained and supported by the aftermarket as they age, echoing the challenges faced with older vehicles, such as sourcing obscure parts and locating service manuals. Vehicles operating on proprietary software platforms introduce a distinct set of difficulties, demanding specialized expertise, tools, and access to vehicle data for servicing.

In response to these evolving needs, “right to repair” legislation, aimed at granting consumers greater access to repair their electronic devices and vehicles, is gaining traction across the United States. Bensaid confirmed that Rivian is proactively enhancing owner access to vehicle diagnostics and service functions to comply with these regulations. “One of our upcoming updates will unlock the service menu within the car, enabling our owners to perform a broader range of actions in alignment with right to repair regulations,” he stated. “Furthermore, we intend to go beyond this, empowering owners within the vehicle to conduct comprehensive diagnostic checks using our AI assistant and on-screen menus, and to perform basic repairs. We will also guide them toward recommended certified third-party service providers.”

Abuelsamid advocates for policies that require manufacturers to release software to third parties for maintenance if they cease product support. “If we move in that direction, truly embedding the right to repair as something universally accessible, then yes, I am more optimistic than I have been in the past,” he concluded.