Tesla’s long-awaited Robotaxi venture is taking center stage, with the electric vehicle giant teasing a significant push into the autonomous ride-hailing market. The company, led by CEO Elon Musk, has been stoking anticipation with cryptic messages on social media, including a post on X stating “no steering wheel, no pedals,” a clear nod to its forthcoming Cybercab driverless vehicles. Further fueling excitement, another post invited users to “try it out” in Austin, Texas, while Musk himself amplified the buzz by pinning a message to his account: “A storm of Cybercabs.”
These pronouncements precede a pivotal event scheduled in Austin, where Tesla is expected to unveil more concrete details about its Cybercab. This futuristic vehicle, first showcased nearly two years ago, is designed as a driverless, two-seater with distinctive butterfly doors, intentionally omitting traditional controls like a steering wheel and pedals. Tesla has already been piloting a version of this purpose-built robotaxi, albeit with human drivers and conventional controls, across various U.S. markets.
On Wednesday, analysts like New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu, alongside Tesla enthusiasts, shared compelling video clips on X depicting Cybercab vehicles navigating public streets in Austin without any visible driver or steering apparatus. This visual evidence has bolstered the sentiment among bullish investors who foresee Tesla rapidly deploying a substantial fleet of robotaxis across major U.S. cities, aiming to challenge the established early lead held by competitors like Waymo.
Musk’s vision for a fully autonomous Tesla, capable of cross-country travel without human intervention, has been a recurring theme for investors and fans since at least 2016. While that ultimate goal remains elusive, Tesla’s current offerings include its “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) system, which, despite its name, still requires a human driver to remain attentive and ready to take control at any moment.
According to one industry tracker, Tesla’s U.S. fleet includes just over 200 vehicles registered as “unsupervised” – meaning they are capable of operating without a human driver on board, within designated geofenced areas in specific cities where such operations are permitted. These unsupervised Tesla vehicles have reportedly completed journeys in cities such as Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, Florida.
Beyond the autonomous push, Tesla also operates a chartered car service in the San Francisco Bay Area, branded as the FSD (Supervised) Rideshare service. This fleet comprises newer Model Y vehicles piloted by Tesla employees utilizing a proprietary version of the FSD (Supervised) system. Passengers can book rides through a dedicated Tesla Robotaxi-branded application.
In stark contrast, Google’s Waymo is already a formidable player, operating a commercial robotaxi service across 14 U.S. cities with a fleet of approximately 4,000 driverless vehicles. Waymo is also actively engaged in testing and expansion in additional markets.
Ahead of Tesla’s anticipated Cybercab update, analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that a “meaningful rollout of unsupervised” vehicles would likely catalyze a resurgence in Tesla’s stock momentum. The company’s shares have experienced a notable dip, down roughly 21% year-to-date as of Wednesday’s closing bell. However, if the upcoming event fails to meet market expectations, analysts predict a muted or even negative market reaction. Morgan Stanley currently maintains a $400 price target on Tesla, with a neutral “hold” rating. Their analysis emphasizes that “Continued growth in the unsupervised fleet (Cybercab or Model Y) is key for the stock to outperform through year-end.”
Public records from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles website reveal that as of Wednesday night, Texas had authorized 45 Cybercab vehicles for driverless operations, out of a total of 420 vehicles registered in the state for such purposes.
It is important to note that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is currently investigating Tesla in at least two ongoing probes concerning potential safety defects in its partially automated driving systems. The company has also faced scrutiny for its practice of requesting the redaction of a significantly larger volume of information from NHTSA crash reports compared to other autonomous vehicle companies, raising concerns about transparency regarding safety data.
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