Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attends the “Winning the AI Race” Summit in Washington D.C., U.S., July 23, 2025.
Kent Nishimura | Reuters
All eyes are on Nvidia as the semiconductor titan prepares to unveil its fiscal second-quarter earnings after market close on Wednesday. Investors and analysts alike are buzzing with anticipation, eager to dissect the numbers and glean insights into the company’s future trajectory.
Here’s what Wall Street expects, according to LSEG consensus estimates:
- Earnings per share: $1.01, adjusted
- Revenue: $46.02 billion
Hitting these targets would translate to a remarkable 53% year-over-year revenue surge for Nvidia, a company that has already ascended to the pinnacle of the corporate world with a market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion. But can Nvidia continue its blistering pace?
Nvidia’s ascent has been nothing short of meteoric. The arrival of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in late 2022 triggered an AI arms race, unleashing unprecedented demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs). These chips, the computational engines driving the AI revolution, have fueled Nvidia’s explosive growth.
The engine driving Nvidia’s revenue growth is its data center business, which now constitutes approximately 88% of the company’s total sales. This dominance underscores Nvidia’s pivotal role in powering the infrastructure that underpins the modern AI landscape.
However, earnings calls are about more than just past performance. Analysts will be laser-focused on two critical issues related to Nvidia’s data center business: the performance of its current generation of chips and the evolving dynamics of its presence in the crucial Chinese market.
CEO Jensen Huang’s commentary on the demand and supply dynamics of the company’s Blackwell chips will be crucial. Earlier this year, Nvidia indicated that Blackwell sales would be constrained not by demand, but by the logistical bottleneck of rack production. This hints at the sheer scale of demand for these high-performance computing solutions.
The Blackwell architecture comes in various configurations, notably the GB200, typically sold within a finished rack computer boasting 72 GPUs and carrying a multi-million-dollar price tag. This highlights the high-end nature of Nvidia’s offerings and the willingness of customers to invest heavily in cutting-edge AI infrastructure.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh succinctly captured the prevailing sentiment, telling CNBC, “That’s probably going to be the most important thing, because I think right now, demand is clearly outstripping supply.” This supply-demand imbalance is a key factor influencing Nvidia’s future growth prospects.
The second pressing issue is Nvidia’s strategic maneuvering in China. In 2023, the company unveiled the H20, a modified chip designed to comply with U.S. export controls. However, the Trump administration’s subsequent decision to mandate licenses for the H20 added complexity to the situation. Nvidia initially projected a potential $8 billion hit to its China sales due to these restrictions.
While the Trump administration later granted those licenses, recent signals from the Chinese government advocating for the adoption of domestically produced chips raise questions about the long-term demand in that market. This geopolitical dimension adds a layer of uncertainty to Nvidia’s growth story.
Most analysts anticipate that Nvidia’s guidance will effectively exclude China from its projections. LSEG estimates suggest Nvidia will guide to nearly $53 billion in sales for its fiscal third quarter, representing a robust 51% annual growth rate. Whether China can be a meaningful contributor to future earnings remains a key question.
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