Tesla CEO Elon Musk is betting big on robots. He predicts that the yet-to-be-released Optimus robots will ultimately account for over three-quarters of the electric vehicle giant’s total valuation. It’s a bold claim, even for Musk.
In a recent post on X, Musk stated, “~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus.” This echoes sentiments from mid-2024, when he posited that Optimus could catapult Tesla to a staggering $25 trillion valuation – a figure that, at the time, represented more than half the entire value of the S&P 500.
This pronouncement comes as Tesla navigates a challenging period. Facing increased competition from lower-cost Chinese EV manufacturers, grappling with an aging vehicle lineup, and navigating the fallout from Musk’s own controversial political statements and affiliations, the CEO is keen to redirect Wall Street’s gaze towards the horizon.
And for Tesla, that future is paved with robotaxis and humanoid robots, all powered by the burgeoning field of artificial intelligence. Musk doubled down on this vision during the company’s second-quarter conference call, asserting that “Tesla is by far the best in the world at real-world AI.”
However, the path to this robotic utopia isn’t without its hurdles. Tesla currently lags behind key competitors in both the robotaxi and humanoid robot arenas.
In the robotaxi market, Tesla’s testing remains limited to Austin, Texas, and San Francisco. Meanwhile, Alphabet’s Waymo boasts a significant head start, operating in numerous markets and having already surpassed 10 million paid trips as of May. Baidu’s Apollo Go is also actively serving customers in China.
The humanoid robot space is also becoming increasingly crowded. Tesla faces competition from Chinese upstarts like Unitree, which recently showcased their robotic prowess at the World Humanoid Robot Games. Established players such as Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, Apptronik, 1X, and Figure are also vying for market share.
Despite the stiff competition, Tesla remains optimistic. Musk announced in March plans to produce 5,000 Optimus robots this year. The company’s first-quarter shareholder deck reinforced this timeline, stating that they are on track for “builds of Optimus on our Fremont pilot production line in 2025, with wider deployment of bots doing useful work across our factories.”
But even as Tesla aims to bring this vision to reality, the company recently experienced a leadership shakeup within its robotics division.
Milan Kovac, Tesla’s vice president of Optimus robotics, stepped down in June after nine years with the company.
Tesla envisions Optimus as a versatile, bipedal robot capable of performing a wide range of tasks, from factory work to even babysitting – a testament to their belief in the transformative potential of humanoid robotics.
— CNBC’s Lora Kolodny contributed to this report.
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