Tobias

Stocks rallied for a second week, hitting record highs, driven by encouraging inflation data (September CPI) and strong corporate earnings. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 2% and 2.3% respectively. Lower-than-expected CPI data suggests potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Approximately 87% of S&P 500 companies reporting have exceeded earnings expectations. Companies like Danaher, Capital One, and GE Vernova contributed to the positive trend. Next week’s earnings releases from major companies will be closely watched.

Cameron Pappas, owner of Norton’s Florist in Birmingham, Alabama, experiences a disconnect between the AI-driven stock market boom and the struggles faced by small businesses in the broader economy. While tech giants thrive, Norton’s, like many in retail, construction, and hospitality, grapples with rising costs due to tariffs and decreased consumer spending. Pappas focuses on cost management to avoid price increases that could impact customers. Last year, Norton’s, specializing in flowers and gifts, generated $4 million in revenue.

“Supply constrained” is a dominant theme this earnings season, indicating profit opportunities for involved companies. High demand in sectors like tech (Intel, Micron, AMD, Nvidia) and energy (GE Vernova) empowers firms to raise prices. Factors like AI’s demand and semiconductor production complexities drive shortages. Even Boeing faces production constraints. With this imbalance likely persisting, companies navigating supply limitations represent attractive investment opportunities. This situation could also improve the US trade deficit through exports.

AMD shares surged after reports that IBM successfully used AMD’s FPGAs to run a quantum error correction algorithm. IBM confirmed the development, considering it a milestone in their aim to build a large-scale quantum computer by 2029. The breakthrough simplifies quantum computing by using conventional chips, potentially reducing costs. The news also boosted IBM’s stock and other quantum computing companies like D-Wave, Rigetti, and IonQ. This highlights the advancements in heterogeneous computing for quantum applications.

OpenAI’s Sora 2, an AI video generator integrated with a social feed, quickly gained popularity, surpassing ChatGPT’s initial download rate. This raises questions about its potential to challenge Meta’s social media dominance and advertising revenue. While analysts acknowledge potential investor anxiety and Meta’s stock has seen a slight decline, Meta’s large user base, history of innovation, and ongoing AI investments may mitigate the threat. Concerns remain regarding the sustainability of AI-generated content and its potential impact on user engagement and retention.

Next week marks a busy earnings season with over 150 S&P 500 companies reporting, especially tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. Key companies to watch include Corning (strength in optical communication), Boeing (737 Max production ramp-up), Starbucks (turnaround strategy progress), Bristol Myers Squibb (drug trial updates), Eli Lilly (GLP-1 drug viability), Linde (stability). Amazon needs to show AWS revenue acceleration, while Apple’s iPhone demand and services growth are in focus.

Intel reported a profitable third quarter, ending a six-quarter loss streak, driven by robust chip demand and U.S. government investment. Client computing revenue grew 5%, boosted by a stabilizing PC market and AI-enabled PCs. CEO Tan emphasized AI’s strategic importance. While the foundry business needs improvement, Intel is focused on advanced manufacturing and new AI-centric solutions. Legacy products also saw unexpected demand. CFO Zinser highlighted improved cash position and plans for deploying advanced nodes based on firm demand.

Key market movers include escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions after Trump halted negotiations, citing a controversial Canadian ad. Investors await September’s delayed CPI report, crucial for Fed policy decisions, with potential for market volatility. Target announces 1,800 corporate job cuts amid restructuring. Ford’s strong Q3 earnings are overshadowed by a profit forecast reduction due to supply chain issues, while Rivian cuts 4.5% of its workforce. The NBA faces a gambling scandal involving Terry Rozier and Chauncey Billups.

Key market movers include a slightly cooled inflation rate boosting sentiment, Intel’s resurgence driven by PC and AI demand, and positive implications for data storage companies. P&G exceeded earnings expectations, while Beyond Meat faces skepticism. Quantum computing stocks show continued promise. Ford saw a price target increase, while Deckers Outdoors experienced a share decline. Union Pacific’s target price was raised, anticipating industry consolidation. Target and Applied Materials announced significant layoffs, reflecting restructuring efforts.

This report highlights increasing government influence in the U.S. economy, exemplified by Trump’s pardon of Binance’s founder and the government’s equity stake in Intel. These actions raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest, market distortion, and fair competition. Trade tensions with Canada have escalated, while China expresses a conciliatory tone ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting. U.S. stocks are up, driven by tech, and dividend stocks are gaining appeal as interest rates are projected to decline.