AI Chips

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed a $500 billion order backlog for AI chips spanning 2025-2026, following significant revenue growth. Analysts believe this indicates higher-than-expected revenue in 2026. Despite this, Nvidia’s stock remains below its value from late October. Analysts are closely watching Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings and forward guidance, along with details on partnerships, including a potential $10 billion investment in OpenAI. Competition from custom silicon and sales to China are also key areas of scrutiny.

AMD CEO Lisa Su defended Big Tech’s AI investments as calculated moves, not gambles, leading to a 10% surge in AMD shares. She cited increased capital expenditures from hyperscalers due to AI reaching an “inflection point.” While acknowledging concerns of an AI bubble, fueled by short-seller Michael Burry’s stance and Softbank’s Nvidia stake sale, Su remained confident in AMD’s growth, projecting 35% annual revenue growth driven by “insatiable” AI chip demand and aiming for a double-digit market share in data center AI chips.

AMD projects 35% annual revenue growth over the next 3-5 years, driven by an 80% annual expansion in its AI data center business, potentially reaching tens of billions in sales by 2027. The company aims for a double-digit share in the data center AI chip market, challenging Nvidia’s dominance. AMD is partnering with OpenAI to supply Instinct AI chips. The total addressable market for AI data centers is estimated to reach $1 trillion by 2030. Despite the AI focus, AMD’s legacy businesses are also experiencing growth.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied, recovering from recent losses, driven by optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the government shutdown. Nvidia led the gains, supported by CEO Huang’s expectation of increased wafer demand. This demand highlights the importance of wafer starts as an indicator of semiconductor market health, benefiting companies like Qnity Electronics. Sector performance was broad, with consumer discretionary and materials showing strength. Attention now turns to upcoming earnings reports and developments in Washington regarding the government shutdown.

A potential Tesla-Intel partnership for AI chip production is emerging, potentially offering chips at 10% of Nvidia’s cost. Elon Musk mentioned possible Intel collaboration at Tesla’s shareholder meeting, citing supply chain constraints and ambitious AI goals. Intel’s stock saw a boost, reflecting confidence in the partnership’s potential. This move could reshape enterprise AI economics, challenge existing chip manufacturers, and accelerate AI hardware innovation, demanding that enterprise leaders closely monitor these developments. Tesla is targeting limited AI5 chip production in 2026, with high-volume in 2027.

Nvidia dominates the AI chip market, but Google is emerging as a silicon contender with its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). Google’s Ironwood, its seventh-generation TPU, delivers a fourfold performance increase and is targeted at demanding AI workloads. AI startup Anthropic plans to deploy 1 million Ironwood TPUs. Google’s TPUs offer efficiency advantages and drive cloud growth. While Amazon and Microsoft are developing custom chips, Google leads in TPU deployment at scale, with potential for significant cloud market impact. Google is even exploring space-based solar power for TPUs.

Nvidia is caught between US and China’s AI chip restrictions, its market share in China plummeting from 95% to zero. Both countries are leveraging AI chips in a tech standoff. Despite lobbying efforts, Nvidia faces exclusion, as Beijing favors domestic chips and Washington restricts exports. This situation highlights the increasing difficulty for tech companies to remain neutral amidst geopolitical tensions, forcing them to choose sides and navigate complex regulations. Nvidia now anticipates zero revenue from China, signaling a potential permanent market separation.

Xpeng is aggressively expanding beyond EVs, unveiling a new humanoid robot and planning a robotaxi service launch next year. The robotaxis will utilize internally developed AI chips with substantial computing power, supported by Alibaba’s mapping expertise. Initial applications for the humanoid robot will focus on roles like tour guides. This move positions Xpeng against Tesla as a broader technology firm and reflects an industry trend towards integrating AI for new revenue streams in autonomous mobility.

President Trump indicated Nvidia’s advanced AI chips, particularly the “super duper chip” (GB200 Grace Blackwell), could be discussed with President Xi. Trump claimed US chip technology is a decade ahead of competitors. This comes amid export controls restricting Nvidia’s advanced chips to China, and a recent Chinese ban citing national security. Analysts believe China’s ban may be leverage in trade talks. Nvidia was developing a China-specific chip, the B30A, but the ban complicates this. Analysts warn easing restrictions could boost China’s AI ecosystem. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang plans announcements in South Korea, potentially expanding Nvidia’s presence there.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is visiting South Korea amid geopolitical tensions, coinciding with a Trump-Xi meeting. He’ll meet with SK Group and Samsung executives to discuss HBM supply, crucial for Nvidia’s AI systems. The trip follows Nvidia’s global infrastructure deals. Huang’s potential meeting with Trump raises questions about Nvidia’s future in China, especially concerning Blackwell chip exports, given Beijing’s push for domestic alternatives. Nvidia’s situation highlights the intertwining of technology, trade, and US-China relations.