#AMD

A Morgan Stanley report reveals high profitability in AI inference, with average profit margins exceeding 50% for “AI inference factories.” NVIDIA’s GB200 NVL72 leads with a near 78% profit margin, followed by Google’s TPU v6e pod (74.9%) and AWS’s Trn2 UltraServer (62.5%). Huawei’s Ascend CloudMatrix 384 achieves 47.9%. AMD’s MI300X and MI355X, however, show significant negative profit margins due to insufficient token generation efficiency.

Nvidia and AMD have agreed to remit 15% of their AI chip sales revenue in China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses. The White House confirmed the arrangement, initiated by the Trump administration, aims to reduce U.S. national debt, which exceeds $37 trillion. Nvidia’s H20 chip is currently the primary product affected. The Treasury Secretary sees this as mutually beneficial, allowing Nvidia to maintain its Chinese market presence while benefiting American taxpayers. This agreement may extend to other companies and sectors in the future.

In a CNBC interview, AMD CEO Lisa Su discussed topics ranging from export controls and AI’s transformative potential to competing with Nvidia and the Silicon Valley talent war. She playfully addressed the recurring question about her relationship with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, revealing they are cousins through their maternal family lines. Su also emphasized AMD’s strategy of offering diverse solutions beyond direct competition with Intel and Nvidia. Her vision aims to showcase AMD’s unique capabilities to the world.

AMD is set to release its Q2 earnings, anticipating strong results and potentially record-breaking revenue. The company is projected to generate approximately $32 billion in revenue this year, nearing Intel’s level for the first time. While Intel’s Q2 revenue was $12.9 billion, its profitability declined, leading to reduced full-year guidance. AMD’s stock performance is strong, with market capitalization exceeding $280 billion, while Intel’s remains around $80 billion. AMD’s revenue is now more than half of Intel’s, a significant shift given AMD’s reliance on external foundries.

Shortly after Nvidia’s H20 chip sale to China was approved, AMD confirmed it will resume exporting its MI308 chip to the Chinese market. The U.S. Department of Commerce will review AMD’s license application. These AI hardware export restrictions, imposed by both the Biden and Trump administrations, have negatively impacted AMD’s financials, with potential losses reaching $800 million. The policy shift allowing MI308 exports is a boost for AMD, reflected in a nearly 5% stock price surge. This decision marks a policy reversal, particularly from the previous Trump administration’s stance.

Nvidia’s stock surged after CEO Jensen Huang’s Beijing visit sparked optimism about resuming H20 chip sales to China, adding almost $200 billion to its market cap. AMD also saw gains. The H20 is a modified chip designed to comply with U.S. export rules. Despite Nvidia’s optimism, uncertainties remain due to U.S.-China relations and growing competition from domestic Chinese companies like Huawei, which could impact long-term market share.

Analysts boosted AMD’s stock to ‘buy’ with a $200 target, citing its MI350 AI chips as a strong Nvidia competitor. Increased optimism centers on the MI350’s performance rivaling Nvidia’s Blackwell and higher-than-expected pricing, with the MI355 model now projected to sell for $25,000. HSBC significantly raised AMD’s projected 2026 AI chip revenue to $15.1 billion (up from $9.6B). The positive outlook drove AMD’s stock up 4.15% recently.

AMD CEO Lisa Su is challenging NVIDIA’s dominance in the booming AI chip market. AMD’s new MI355 chips reportedly outperform NVIDIA’s offerings in AI software execution and offer a price advantage. Su forecasts the AI chip market will exceed $500 billion. OpenAI will utilize AMD’s chips, and the company aims to significantly expand its market share, though NVIDIA currently leads with substantial revenue. The MI series is pivotal for AMD’s growth.