consumer spending

While AI has significantly influenced market valuations and investments, recent analyses suggest it’s not the sole driver of U.S. economic growth. Consumer spending remains the primary engine, contributing more to GDP than AI-related capital expenditures. After accounting for imports, AI’s net contribution to GDP is smaller than often perceived, highlighting the continued resilience of the U.S. consumer.

The Primerica Household Budget Index™ shows middle-income Americans (earning $30k-$130k) faced a 3.2% increase in essential living costs over the past year, slightly outpacing the general CPI. This rise in food, utilities, gas, insurance, and healthcare strains household budgets, impacting savings and financial planning. The index, specifically tailored for this demographic, highlights their disproportionate financial pressures.

Oportun’s 2025 Holiday Savings Report reveals that members have saved $6.5 million for the holidays YTD, a 30% increase from 2024. Average member savings are $1,051 (Jan-Sep), with Q3 catch-up savings at $431 (+10% YoY). Q3 withdrawals averaged $605. Top saver states are Kansas, Washington, and Colorado; lowest are North Carolina, Michigan, and Idaho. The report also notes a consistent 20%+ year-start increase in deadline-driven goals.

Yesterday’s market saw a broad decline, with the Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all experiencing significant losses amid AI rally fatigue. Disney’s weak revenue and doubts about Oracle’s AI prospects contributed. Expectations for a Fed rate cut diminished. Consumer spending shows mixed signals, while housing faces potential distress. Labor disputes see Boeing workers ratifying a contract, and Starbucks baristas striking. Delivering Alpha insights revealed optimism about AI and concern about the IPO market.

White-collar layoffs are sweeping corporate America due to factors beyond just AI displacement. Amazon, UPS, and Target, collectively cutting over 60,000 jobs, cite corporate bloat, operational streamlining, and evolving business models as key drivers. While some companies openly attribute job cuts to AI implementation, experts suggest “AI-washing” may be masking underlying issues. Concerns about the economic outlook and a “bandwagon effect” contribute to the layoffs, impacting various sectors and raising questions about the labor market’s strength. Broader economic factors such as slowing sales, tariffs and inventory management issues also play a role.

Cameron Pappas, owner of Norton’s Florist in Birmingham, Alabama, experiences a disconnect between the AI-driven stock market boom and the struggles faced by small businesses in the broader economy. While tech giants thrive, Norton’s, like many in retail, construction, and hospitality, grapples with rising costs due to tariffs and decreased consumer spending. Pappas focuses on cost management to avoid price increases that could impact customers. Last year, Norton’s, specializing in flowers and gifts, generated $4 million in revenue.

Primerica’s Household Budget Index™ (HBI™) indicates increasing financial strain on middle-income families. The August reading shows a 0.1% monthly and 0.8% yearly rise, reflecting a 3.3% inflation rate tailored to middle-income spending, exceeding the overall CPI. Rising costs of essential goods (food, utilities, gasoline, insurance, healthcare) are outpacing wage growth, disproportionately affecting this demographic. Primerica emphasizes the HBI™’s importance for informed policymaking to address the economic challenges faced by over 55% of the U.S. population. The HBI™ utilizes data from various government sources.

Affirm (AFRM) shares jumped 12% after exceeding Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter. Earnings reached 20 cents per share with a 33% year-over-year revenue increase to $876 million. Net income was $69.2 million, a stark contrast to last year’s loss. Affirm’s volume surged 44%, driven by partnerships with Shopify and Amazon, despite losing Walmart as a partner. The company issued strong fiscal 2026 guidance, highlighting growth in consumer transactions and the success of its Affirm Card, which saw GMV surge 132%. AI is also boosting merchant volume.

The 2025 summer ice cream market shows mid-range options ($3-$5) dominating, capturing nearly half the sales, while premium ice cream (over $10) faces challenges. Zhong Xue Gao filed for bankruptcy, and Häagen-Dazs experienced declines in China. Value-conscious spending drives this shift, making pricing aligned with consumer power crucial for sustainability, as the ultra-premium and budget segments shrink. The mid-to-premium range emerges as the strongest force.

Guangxi, China, is relaunching a “trade-in” subsidy program on August 5th, 2025, to boost consumer spending. Subsidies are available for trading in old appliances, 3C digital products, electric bicycles, and home renovation items for new ones. The program focuses on in-store redemptions and offers subsidies up to 20% (max 2,000 yuan) for appliances, 15% (max 500 yuan) for 3C products, 600 yuan for e-bikes, and 1,000 yuan (max 15,000 yuan total) for home renovation, via UnionPay digital coupons on a first-come, first-served daily basis.