Federal Reserve

.Morning Squawk highlights: The Fed delivered a 25‑bp rate cut, signaling a hawkish stance and limited future cuts, sparking a stock rally. In tech, Oracle missed Q2 revenue while Cisco hit a record high, underscoring a split between legacy software firms and AI‑focused networking players. President Trump seized a Venezuelan‑linked oil tanker, pushing Brent crude higher. Rivian showcased AI‑driven autonomy to boost margins amid ongoing losses. Coca‑Cola named Henrique Braun CEO for 2026, aiming to drive digital and premium growth. Wealth advisors increasingly use encrypted messaging for fast, private deal coordination.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25 percentage points in December, pairing a modest “hawkish” trim with a new $40 billion‑monthly Treasury bill purchase program that quietly eases liquidity. Officials forecast stronger 2026 growth and signal only two more cuts before 2027, prompting a market rally and expectations of a “Santa Claus” surge. Meanwhile, NATO’s 5 %‑GDP defense‑spending target is driving a $4.3 billion influx into European AI‑defense startups, creating investment opportunities as legacy contractors partner with agile AI firms.

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 bps, paired with a new $40 billion Treasury‑bill purchase program and an upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3 %. Chair Powell dismissed further hikes, prompting equity markets to rally and expectations of a year‑end “Santa Claus” surge. Meanwhile, President Trump’s criticism of Europe’s response to the Ukraine war heightened geopolitical tension, raising risk for tech and defense sectors that rely on transatlantic coordination and joint R&D. Investors are cautioned that policy uncertainty could increase volatility.

The newsletter outlines five market‑moving items: investors expect a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut today, likely the last for a while, while equities remain cautious. Oracle’s Q2 earnings will test its AI‑focused growth and heavy infrastructure spending. Big‑pharma firms such as Eli Lilly and Pfizer are pouring billions into U.S. manufacturing to capture the booming obesity‑treatment market. The Education Department plans to end the SAVE loan‑payment pause, potentially dampening consumer spending. Finally, Target’s revamped SoHo concept store aims to draw discretionary shoppers with rotating, curated merchandise.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.5‑3.75%, but markets will focus on its forward guidance; a hawkish tone could curb equity rallies while bonds rise. Meanwhile, the US faces a growing AI talent gap with China, which graduates four times more STEM students, threatening the US lead in AI research and chip manufacturing. Companies may need higher R&D spending and policy reforms to retain talent, and investors should favor firms with strong in‑house R&D and academic ties.

.Investors face a mixed backdrop as markets rally on softer core inflation and a high probability of a Fed rate cut, while the S&P 500 hovers near a key resistance level. Berkshire Hathaway announced leadership shifts, with Todd Combs moving to JPMorgan and Nancy Pierce taking GEICO’s helm. A proposed Netflix‑Warner Bros. deal confronts antitrust scrutiny, prompting potential bids from Paramount Skydance. Google must modify its Apple search‑default agreement and establish an oversight committee after a new antitrust ruling. The global denim industry tops $100 billion, driven by sustainability‑focused growth. Key data this week include the New York Fed survey, JOLT figures and the Fed’s decision, alongside major earnings from Oracle, Adobe, Lululemon, Costco and Broadcom.

U.S. stocks closed the week higher as the September core PCE index cooled to 2.6% YoY, nudging expectations of a Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq almost 1%, and the Dow 0.5%, marking back‑to‑back weekly gains. In tech, Meta trimmed metaverse spend, climbing 4%; Salesforce surged 13% after an earnings beat, emphasizing AI as a “commodity feature”; CrowdStrike posted record cash flow and earned a reaffirmed buy rating. Portfolio moves added Boeing and Procter & Gamble, while taking partial profits on Goldman Sachs. The upcoming Fed meeting will steer market direction, with a dovish stance likely sparking a rally in rate‑sensitive and AI‑driven sectors, while a hawkish tone may shift investors toward defensive, cash‑flow‑rich stocks.

Morning Squawk highlights: a surprise ADP job decline raised Fed rate‑cut odds to ~89%, sparking a Dow gain and tighter yield curve; Salesforce beat EPS, with Agentforce AI revenue up 330% and an aggressive outlook. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned against restrictive AI‑chip export rules, noting potential revenue impact. The ACIP may revise the 24‑hour hepatitis B birth vaccine rule, affecting pharma demand. GM named Sterling Anderson EVP‑product, aiming to speed EV rollout amid lower South Korean tariffs. Delta reported a $200 million pretax hit from the government shutdown.

U.S. equity markets are rotating away from AI‑centric mega‑caps toward broader, value‑oriented sectors as liquidity returns and the Fed prepares further rate cuts. Analysts note strong six‑month gains in emerging‑market (EEM) and industrial (XLI) ETFs, viewing them as hedges against overpriced “Magnificent 7” stocks. Both Astoria Portfolio Advisors’ CEO John Davi and LionShares’ CEO Sophia Massie stress diversification, lower‑beta assets and risk‑parity weighting, while acknowledging AI’s long‑term upside but warning that many pure‑play AI firms lack clear profitability paths.

U.S. stocks posted a fourth consecutive gain, led by tech names such as Oracle, Nvidia and Microsoft, as Thanksgiving optimism fuels market sentiment. Deutsche Bank sees Oracle’s dip as a buying opportunity, while futures imply an 85% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, with a potential correction if expectations aren’t met. Analysts project S&P 500 levels of 7,400‑8,000 by 2026. Meanwhile, Apple is set to outsell Samsung in smartphones, China’s industrial profits fell 5.5% YoY, MIT warns AI could replace 11.7% of U.S. jobs, and Bitcoin remains pressured. A balanced mix of high‑growth tech and resilient sectors is advised.