Labor Market

U.S. equities were flat as mixed labor data left markets cautious and overbought. Meta jumped ~4% after cutting its metaverse unit to focus on ads and AI, while Costco’s comparable sales fell slightly, keeping its valuation high despite solid same‑store growth. Salesforce beat earnings but missed revenue forecasts, flagging AI‑driven pressure on its licensing model. Cramer highlighted Snowflake, Five Below, Hormel, PayPal and Kroger as potential movers, and his charitable trust remains long on META, CRM and COST. Trade alerts face mandatory 45‑minute and 72‑hour waiting periods before execution.

An MIT-ORNL study introduces the Iceberg Index, a labor simulation tool, projecting AI could impact 11.7% of US workers, representing $1.2 trillion in wages. The index models 151 million workers, mapping skills across occupations and assessing AI’s capabilities. Findings suggest significant impacts beyond tech, affecting routine functions in diverse sectors. States like Tennessee and Utah are using the Index to develop workforce policies, uncovering localized effects missed by conventional tools and enabling proactive workforce planning through scenario experimentation.

Key takeaways include potential delays in economic data releases due to government shutdown impacts on labor market reports and concerns over “ghost jobs.” A proposed tariff rebate faces skepticism, while importers await a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. The Senate is drafting digital asset market structure legislation. On, a sportswear company, reported strong earnings, while Oura projects significant sales growth. Consumer sentiment is linked to stock ownership levels.

The CNBC Investing Club’s “Morning Meeting” discussed market pressures on Big Tech due to CoreWeave’s weak outlook, raising concerns about AI investment sustainability and debt levels. Soft labor market data also contributed to downward pressure. Linde shares rose after a UBS upgrade citing future earnings growth. Nvidia declined following SoftBank’s stake sale to fund OpenAI, reinforcing debt concerns around AI data centers despite the Club’s long-term view. The rapid-fire segment covered CoreWeave, Paramount Skydance, Amgen, Dutch Bros, and Coterra Energy.

A Stanford study reveals generative AI’s disproportionate impact on early career job prospects. Analyzing ADP payroll data, researchers found a 13% employment decline since 2022 for 22-25 year olds in AI-exposed sectors like customer service and software development. Conversely, experienced workers in the same fields and workers in less AI-vulnerable occupations saw stable or growing employment. AI’s ability to replace “codified knowledge” may disadvantage younger workers, while its complementary role in some areas sustains employment.