ASML raised its sales forecast for 2026, signaling robust demand for its advanced chip-manufacturing equipment, particularly driven by the insatiable appetite for artificial intelligence. The Dutch giant comfortably surpassed first-quarter revenue and profit expectations, underscoring its critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain.
For the first quarter, ASML reported:
- Net sales: 8.8 billion euros ($10.4 billion), exceeding LSEG consensus estimates of 8.5 billion euros.
- Net profit: 2.8 billion euros, surpassing the expected 2.5 billion euros.
The company’s previous guidance for the first quarter had projected sales between 8.2 billion euros and 8.9 billion euros, indicating a strong performance that landed at the upper end of its own predictions.
Looking ahead, ASML now anticipates its 2026 net sales to range between 36 billion euros and 40 billion euros, an upward revision from its prior forecast of 34 billion euros to 39 billion euros. This increased outlook reflects a confident projection for sustained industry growth.
“The semiconductor industry’s growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments,” stated ASML CEO Christophe Fouque in a press release. “Demand for chips is outpacing supply. In response, our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond, supported by long-term agreements with their customers.”
ASML’s position as a key enabler of advanced semiconductor manufacturing makes it a crucial barometer for the health of the entire chip industry. The company’s lithography systems are indispensable for producing the most sophisticated chips that power everything from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to advanced mobile devices.
The strength of ASML’s performance is closely mirrored by its major customers. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a leading foundry and a significant ASML client, recently reported record first-quarter revenue, largely propelled by the robust demand for AI-specific chips. This symbiotic relationship highlights the interconnectedness of the semiconductor ecosystem.
The burgeoning demand for AI infrastructure has created a significant need for memory chips, driving their prices to unprecedented levels. As memory is a foundational component of AI systems and data centers, leading memory manufacturers such as Samsung and SK Hynix are strategically expanding their production capacities. This expansion directly translates into increased demand for ASML’s cutting-edge machinery.
Reflecting this trend, ASML reported that in the first quarter, 51% of its net sales for new tools were allocated to the memory segment, a substantial increase from 30% in the preceding quarter. Geographically, customers in South Korea accounted for 45% of ASML’s sales, while Taiwan represented 23%, underscoring the concentrated nature of advanced chip manufacturing in these regions.
Despite the overwhelmingly positive outlook, ASML is navigating certain geopolitical headwinds, particularly concerning its operations in China. Export restrictions imposed by the U.S. government limit ASML’s ability to ship its most advanced lithography systems to China. Furthermore, recent legislative efforts in the U.S. aim to expand these restrictions, potentially impacting the sale of even less advanced ASML machines to China, pending the outcome of the legislative process.
This geopolitical tension is reflected in ASML’s sales figures. System sales to China saw a notable decrease, constituting 19% of overall sales in the first quarter compared to 36% in the December quarter. This shift underscores the evolving landscape of global trade in advanced technology and the impact of international relations on supply chains.
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