SpaceX’s eye-watering $1.77 trillion IPO valuation is prompting a mix of awe and skepticism among retail investors, with many acknowledging the premium but still eager to get a piece of what could be the most significant public debut in history.
Marvin Jung, a 51-year-old regional director of operations in veterinary care, doesn’t believe SpaceX is a bargain. He describes the valuation as “really, really aggressive,” even “outrageous” and “stupid.” Yet, he has placed an order for 1,000 shares through Robinhood, driven by the anticipation of a strong first-day rally. “With SpaceX and what Elon is doing, this is like a beautiful symphony of all the right trigger meme words,” Jung commented. His strategy is clear: capitalize on the initial surge and then reinvest in the next wave of anticipated IPOs from AI leaders like Anthropic and OpenAI. He acknowledges the risk of anti-flipping policies from brokerages like Fidelity, which can penalize early sales by impacting future IPO access.
SpaceX has set its IPO price at $135 per share, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. This would immediately place it as the seventh-largest U.S. company by market capitalization, surpassing even Tesla. A significant portion of shares, in the low 20% range, has been allocated to retail investors, a move notably higher than the typical 5-10% seen in most IPOs. Fidelity, for example, has lowered its brokerage account balance minimum for IPO access to $2,000, a substantial reduction from its usual $100,000 to $500,000 threshold.
**Not Betting Against Elon: The Musk Premium**
The allure of Elon Musk’s visionary leadership is a powerful factor for many. Michael Monaghan, portfolio manager at Founder ETFs, which tracks founder-led companies, points out that Musk commands a premium valuation due to his ability to envision and execute future technologies at an unprecedented pace. “You just can’t model that in a traditional valuation framework,” Monaghan stated.
Recent significant compute deals with AI giants like Anthropic ($1.25 billion per month through May 2029) and Google ($920 million per month for 32 months) have dramatically boosted SpaceX’s revenue projections for 2026, more than doubling them, according to Monaghan. He conservatively estimates SpaceX could reach $200 billion in revenue by 2030.
Mikey Moran, a 49-year-old entrepreneur, is experiencing a fear of missing out, reminiscent of his successful trade in Opendoor Technologies in 2025. He describes the SpaceX IPO as “the Super Bowl of IPOs” and, despite reservations about the valuation, is willing to take “a little bit of a risk.” His past experience of selling Tesla shares too early in 2018, only to see them skyrocket over 1,700%, fuels his desire to be part of this monumental event.
Andrew Chen, a 21-year-old finance and computer science student, learned a harsh lesson when his investments in aircraft-connectivity companies were disrupted by SpaceX’s Starlink. Having been “completely wrong betting against Elon” before, he is now taking the opposite stance, requesting five shares through Robinhood. While acknowledging that the $1.7 trillion market cap is difficult to justify on current fundamentals, he believes the investment hinges entirely on future execution. For Chen, this uncertainty is precisely the reason to invest, trusting in Musk’s proven ability to overcome skepticism.
**Looking Beyond the Debut: The Long-Term Space Economy**
While much of the immediate buzz centers on the IPO’s first-day trading potential, some investors are looking further ahead. Ross Cameron, founder of trading education platform Warrior Trading, remains cautious, emphasizing that his decision to invest will depend on the allocation he receives. A high allocation would signal oversupply, while a limited one would suggest strong demand. Cameron views the IPO price as potentially “dumb money” and plans to trade the stock rather than “marry it,” preferring to re-evaluate after the lock-up period and when insiders have cashed out.
Helaine Markham, who runs Markham Trading, sees the long-term opportunity extending far beyond the initial offering. While she believes Starlink presents short-term growth, she is particularly excited about the nascent space-related industries, including potential space mineral extraction and AI data centers in space. Markham, who requested two shares, aims to hold for “10-plus years,” envisioning it as a legacy investment.
Maurits Pot, CEO of Tema ETFs, believes that multiple space-related companies will be constituents of the S&P 500 by 2030. His Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) is the largest space-themed ETF globally and is unique in that it will directly own SpaceX, holding approximately 7% of its net asset value. The ETF has seen a substantial 40% jump quarter-to-date.
Pot cautions against viewing the SpaceX IPO as a short-term trading opportunity. “If people are investing in the space economy, buying and selling at the SpaceX IPO would seem a bit foolish,” he stated, emphasizing that “the space economy will only grow. The SpaceX IPO is not the destination.”
SpaceX did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment regarding valuation concerns.
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