5 Things to Know Before Thursday’s Market Open

CNBC’s Morning Squawk Newsletter

Stocks poised for a modest uptick as markets digest geopolitical tensions and tech sector developments. Investors are closely monitoring the ongoing conflict with Iran and the latest moves from AI giant OpenAI, alongside key earnings reports and significant legal rulings.

Here are five critical factors shaping the trading landscape this morning:

1. **Geopolitical Crosscurrents and Market Sentiment:** Persistent uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the conflict with Iran continues to cast a shadow over market sentiment. Trump’s recent comments indicating hesitation about a deal with Tehran, juxtaposed with U.S. military actions, are keeping investors on edge. This geopolitical backdrop adds a layer of risk premium to market movements, influencing investor appetite for riskier assets. The direct impact on oil prices and global supply chains remains a key concern, potentially driving volatility across various sectors.

2. **OpenAI’s Generative AI Expansion and Market Implications:** OpenAI is set to release its GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna models to the public today. This broad release follows a period of limited access, initiated at the U.S. government’s request, which restricted early versions of the ChatGPT-5.6 series to select government-approved entities. The company’s decision to broaden public access signals a significant ramp-up in its generative AI capabilities. This move has profound implications for the technology sector, potentially accelerating the adoption of AI across industries and intensifying competition among major tech players. The development also raises important questions about AI governance, ethical deployment, and the race for technological dominance, particularly in the realm of advanced language models. The broader impact on cloud infrastructure, data processing, and the demand for specialized hardware, such as advanced GPUs, is a key area of focus for technology investors.

3. **Levi Strauss Earnings: Navigating Consumer Spending:** Levi Strauss shares are experiencing a pre-bell dip, despite the company reporting better-than-expected second-quarter results. The denim giant also raised its guidance and dividend, suggesting underlying strength in its business. CEO Michelle Gass highlighted “healthy” demand and resilience in key consumer segments, with unit growth contributing significantly to sales. This performance offers a window into the current state of consumer spending, particularly within the apparel sector. While Levi’s demonstrates robust performance, broader economic indicators and inflation concerns continue to shape the outlook for discretionary spending. Mixed results from PepsiCo, which cited headwinds from penny pitching in North America but strong international demand, further underscore the nuanced consumer landscape. Investors are dissecting these reports for insights into consumer resilience, pricing power, and the efficacy of corporate strategies in navigating inflationary pressures.

4. **Legal Battles and Presidential Appeals:** A New York federal appeals court has denied President Trump’s attempt to prevent E. Jean Carroll from accessing over $5 million awarded in a civil judgment related to sexual abuse and defamation. This ruling follows a federal judge’s prior approval to disburse the funds, reinforcing the legal ramifications of the jury’s verdict. In parallel, President Trump is pursuing a long-shot bid for the Supreme Court to rehear his birthright citizenship case and recently lost an appeals court bid to reinstate his name on the Kennedy Center. These legal proceedings continue to occupy a significant portion of public and market attention, reflecting the complex interplay between politics, law, and business. The financial implications and potential precedents set by these cases are closely watched by legal and financial analysts alike.

5. **SpaceX’s Nasdaq Debut Turbulence and Orbital Ambitions:** SpaceX’s stock has closed below its debut trading price for a second consecutive session following its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index. This volatility, despite a wave of bullish analyst calls from major financial institutions, highlights the challenges of valuing disruptive technology companies in public markets. However, the long-term vision for SpaceX remains a significant focus. Several tech titans, including Broadcom, AMD, and Nvidia, are actively involved in the burgeoning race to establish orbital data centers. This ambitious endeavor signals a potential paradigm shift in data infrastructure, with profound implications for computing, connectivity, and space-based economies. Analysts are assessing the technological hurdles, regulatory frameworks, and capital requirements necessary to realize these orbital ambitions, while also considering the potential for significant long-term value creation.

**The Daily Dividend:**
Blue Origin has reportedly secured its first outside funding round, raising approximately $10 billion and achieving a new valuation of $130 billion. This significant capital infusion underscores the growing investor confidence in the burgeoning private space industry and its potential for future growth and innovation.