CNBC AI News – July 16, 2025 – As sweltering heat waves grip numerous regions across China, with daytime temperatures soaring past 40°C (104°F), a debate is brewing online regarding the accuracy of local weather reports.
Social media users have voiced suspicions that meteorological agencies are underreporting temperatures, claiming that their perceived “feels like” temperature significantly exceeds the official forecasts. Some even allege a reluctance to officially announce temperatures exceeding the 40°C threshold.
In response to these concerns, Zhao Qingyang, a senior engineer at the Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Bureau’s Science Popularization Center, addressed the allegations, stating emphatically to the media: “Meteorological professionals would never intentionally report lower temperatures.”
“Weather forecasting operates under a stringent scoring system,” Zhao explained. “If a forecaster predicts a temperature of 38°C but the actual temperature reaches 40°C or higher, that forecaster receives no points. Therefore, it is in the forecaster’s best interest to strive for the most accurate prediction possible.” This performance-based metric, she implied, incentivizes accuracy over deliberate obfuscation.
Addressing the discrepancy between reported temperatures and perceived heat, Zhao clarified that differences in observational environments are the primary source of the perceived discrepancy.
Official temperatures, she noted, are derived from thermometers housed within a standard weather enclosure (a “Stevenson screen” or “百葉箱”) at meteorological stations.
These enclosures are strategically positioned on grassy surfaces, approximately 1.5 meters (roughly 5 feet) above ground level, in open areas free from obstructions like tall trees or buildings that could block sunlight or impede airflow. This standardized methodology, dictated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), ensures that temperature measurements are comparable across global meteorological stations, facilitating accurate climate analysis and modeling. The difference between this standard measurement and the “feels like” temperature – which incorporates factors like humidity, wind speed, and direct sunlight exposure on surfaces like asphalt – accounts for the public’s perception of higher temperatures.
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