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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang waves to a crowd as he leaves the China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) in Beijing on July 17, 2025.
Jade Gao | Afp | Getty Images
Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang has hinted at a “real possibility” of introducing the company’s cutting-edge Blackwell processor to the Chinese market. This comes as Huang actively encourages the U.S. government to ease restrictions and broaden access for American chip manufacturers in the world’s second-largest economy.
Huang’s optimism extends to the broader AI landscape in China, predicting a robust 50% growth in the artificial intelligence market there within the next year. This bullish outlook underscores the significant potential Nvidia sees in the region, despite existing geopolitical complexities.
“The opportunity for us to bring Blackwell to the China market is a real possibility,” Huang stated during Nvidia’s latest quarterly results call. He emphasized the strategic importance of maintaining a leading edge for American tech companies: “We just have to keep advocating the importance of American tech companies to be able to lead and win the AI race, and help make the American tech stack the global standard.”
Earlier this summer, Huang personally engaged with the White House, seeking export licenses for Nvidia’s current-generation H20 chip tailored for Chinese AI applications. This initiative culminated in an agreement with President Trump, reportedly involving export licenses in exchange for a 15% share of H20 sales revenue directed to the U.S. government, a move designed to balance economic opportunity with national interests.
Following these discussions, Trump expressed openness to considering a similar arrangement for Blackwell chips, Nvidia’s most advanced AI technology that currently commands a significant portion of its data center revenue. This suggests a pragmatic approach to technological exchange, albeit one laden with considerations surrounding strategic advantage.
Huang has consistently argued that enabling Chinese AI developers to utilize Nvidia’s high-performance chips is a preferable outcome to forcing reliance on domestically developed alternatives. Restricting exports, he contends, could inadvertently fuel the Chinese tech industry’s efforts to achieve technological parity or even superiority.
The potential introduction of a Blackwell chip in China could trigger a surge in sales, as Chinese AI developers are likely to gravitate towards the most potent processing power available. However, to comply with U.S. export regulations, Nvidia would likely need to modify these chips, reducing performance in specific areas to meet export control stipulations. This raises the question of how to balance cutting-edge technology deployment with national security concerns.
While initially expressing reservations, Trump has indicated a willingness to explore a modified version of the Blackwell chip for export to China, describing it as “somewhat enhanced in a negative way,” highlighting the delicate balance between technological proliferation and strategic containment.
Huang’s optimistic remarks followed a strong second-quarter earnings report, with Nvidia reporting 56% year-over-year revenue growth to $54 billion – despite no H20 chip sales to China during the quarter. The company repurposed $180 million in H20 inventory to a customer outside of China, resulting in $650 million in sales, demonstrating the adaptability of Nvidia’s supply chain.
Looking ahead, Nvidia is not factoring in any H20 sales for the current quarter (October) in its revenue forecast of $54 billion. However, the company anticipates potential H20 sales ranging from $2 billion to $5 billion, contingent on evolving geopolitical conditions. This cautious yet opportunistic outlook reflects the inherent uncertainties in the current environment.
“If we had more orders, we can build more,” Nvidia CFO Colette Kress stated during the analyst call, suggesting that production capacity is not currently a limiting factor.
Nvidia also clarified that while preliminary licenses had been granted following discussions with Trump, the U.S. government has yet to formally codify regulations outlining the revenue-sharing mechanism for H20 sales. The absence of concrete regulations adds a layer of complexity to the implementation of the agreement.
“USG officials have expressed an expectation that the USG will receive 15% of the revenue generated from licensed H20 sales, but to date, the USG has not published a regulation codifying such requirement,” Kress elaborated.
Huang emphasized the strategic importance of the Chinese market, estimating its potential value at $50 billion annually for Nvidia if competitive products were permitted. He also projected a significant growth trajectory, suggesting a potential 50% annual increase in the Chinese AI market moving forward. This underscores the ongoing need for a balanced approach to technological exports that acknowledges both economic realities and national security imperatives.
Kress acknowledged these challenges, stating: “We’re still waiting on several of the geopolitical issues going back and forth between the governments and the companies trying to determine their purchases and what they want to do.”
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