The narrative that artificial intelligence is the sole engine propping up the U.S. economy is increasingly being questioned. While the AI boom has undeniably reshaped market valuations, fueled substantial investments, spurred record bond issuance for data center construction, and significantly influenced gross domestic product (GDP) figures, particularly in early 2025, recent analyses suggest a more nuanced reality.
Prajakta Bhide, U.S. economic strategist at MRB Partners, revealed in a January report that consumer spending, a perennial cornerstone of economic expansion, was the most crucial driver of U.S. GDP growth last year. AI-related capital expenditures, while significant, were the second-largest contributor.
“AI is an important part of the growth story, but it’s not the entire story,” Bhide stated in a recent interview. “The notion that without AI capex, GDP would have slumped last year simply isn’t accurate. The U.S. consumer continues to be the primary engine of expansion.”
Bhide’s analysis indicates that AI-related components, before adjusting for imports, contributed approximately 90 basis points, or 0.9%, to real GDP growth on average between the first and third quarters of 2025. This represents a little under 40% of the average real GDP growth during that period. However, when adjusted for the import of AI-related equipment, such as computers, semiconductors, and telecommunications gear, the net contribution of AI investments to real GDP growth (excluding these imports) shrinks to between 40 and 50 basis points, or roughly 20-25%.
GDP is fundamentally composed of four elements: consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. Imports are excluded as GDP measures domestic production. Given the substantial volume of high-tech equipment imported into the U.S., the net GDP value attributable to AI is smaller than often perceived. Furthermore, despite the prominent attention given to data center development, Bhide’s research highlights that investments in software and computer hardware represented AI’s most impactful contributions to GDP growth in 2025.
“While a negative shock to AI optimism could pose a risk to GDP growth, the more realistic and smaller estimate of AI’s growth impact, after accounting for imports, dispels the popular notion that the U.S. economy would falter without it,” Bhide elaborated in her January 8th report. “Without the AI boom, there would certainly have been less GDP growth last year, but with fewer imports as well, leading to still decent overall real growth, likely above 1.5%, driven by robust personal consumption.”
Similar sentiments were echoed by Bespoke Investment Group in December. A chart published on their X platform, titled “A unique Q1 created vastly over-stated ‘AI share of Economy’ perceptions,” suggested that AI-linked spending categories accounted for a mere 15% of quarterly GDP growth in the second and third quarters of 2025, with their overall share of GDP remaining below 5%.
While the final official figures for 2025 U.S. GDP growth are pending annual revisions, the quarterly data presents a mixed picture. The economy experienced a significant acceleration in the third quarter of 2025, with real GDP increasing at a much higher-than-expected annual rate of 4.3%. The second quarter saw GDP rise at a 3.3% annualized pace, also exceeding initial estimates. Conversely, the first quarter of 2025 marked a contraction, with GDP shrinking at a 0.3% annualized pace, the first instance of negative growth since the first quarter of 2022.
**Support for a Resilient Economic Outlook**
Bhide’s findings underscore the critical role of consumer spending in sustained economic expansion. Looking ahead to 2026, she anticipates continued resilience in consumption, even with moderating income growth and increasing wealth concentration among high earners.
“Fiscal support measures are providing an offset to aggregate income growth that might not be as strong as last year,” Bhide observed. “In our view, the U.S. consumer remains in a solid position.” She also downplayed concerns that consumption is solely driven by the wealthiest segment of the population, arguing that there is limited evidence to suggest this makes consumption uniquely vulnerable or poses a significant cyclical risk.
Bhide projects that economic growth in the coming year will also be bolstered by ongoing AI investments, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a stabilization in the U.S. unemployment rate, a trend partly influenced by a decline in immigration. She remains attentive to quarterly productivity statistics and the pace of job creation as key indicators.
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