Family Offices Scale Back Deal Volume, But AI Still Attracts

Deal-making among ultra-high-net-worth family offices has slowed considerably throughout 2025, a trend that shows no signs of reversing as the year draws to a close. Data from private wealth platform Fintrx, exclusively provided to CNBC, reveals a significant contraction: family offices executed just 51 direct investments in October, a 63% year-over-year decrease.

Despite this overall downturn, AI remains a focal point, attracting substantial capital from these sophisticated investors.

Notable deals include Winklevoss Capital’s participation in a $1.4 billion Series E round for Crusoe, a data center developer now valued at $10 billion. This investment signals confidence in Crusoe’s approach, likely driven by its specialization in AI-optimized infrastructure and sustainable energy solutions. Similarly, Hillspire, the family office of former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, invested in a $2 billion Series B round for Reflection, an open-source AI model lab (valued at $8 billion). Reflection’s focus on fostering an open and collaborative AI ecosystem appears to align with a growing preference for transparency and ethical development within the AI space.

Family offices also contributed to earlier, high-profile funding rounds, such as Commonwealth Fusion’s $863 million Series B2. Hillspire, Laurene Powell Jobs’ Emerson Collective, and Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office all participated, highlighting a broader interest in breakthrough energy technologies. The interest in fusion energy suggests that family offices are willing to take longer-term bets on potentially transformative technologies, even with significant inherent risks.

While the volume of deals has decreased, the overall ticket size remains substantial, suggesting a shift toward higher-conviction investments and a preference for participating in larger, more mature deals. This trend is confirmed by a recent PwC report.

According to PwC, while family offices completed 23% fewer deals in the first half of 2025, the aggregate deal value decreased by only 18% compared to the previous year. Significantly, the percentage of deals exceeding $100 million remained stable at 15%, and those exceeding $500 million only dipped slightly by one percentage point to 3%.

The surge in valuations within the AI sector has artificially bolstered overall deal values. PwC data indicates that family offices maintained roughly the same investment pace in AI and machine learning during the first half of 2025 compared to 2023, but the total deal value nearly tripled, reaching $123.3 billion. This reflects both the increased maturity of the AI sector and the potential for rapid scalability inherent in AI-driven businesses.

Beyond the AI boom, family offices have been gravitating towards larger deals for some time. Over the past decade, investments under $25 million have decreased from 70% to 59% of total deal flow. Conversely, deals ranging from $25 million to $100 million have increased to 26%, up from 20% in 2015, and deals exceeding $100 million have grown from 9% to 15%.

The PwC report attributes this shift to family offices seeking more significant returns and evolving into “major players in the global deals landscape.” As family offices professionalize their investment teams and develop in-house expertise, they are increasingly equipped to conduct due diligence and manage larger, more complex transactions, driving this trend towards larger, concentrated investments.